On Sunday, Japanese voters handed the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito an unmistakable defeat. Not only is the PDL no longer the majority power, but the coalition no longer governs. Now two questions must be answered. First, can the PDL now build a new coalition government, and if so, what will it look like? Second, what are the implications for Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru?

The numbers tell the story best. LDP has now 191 seats in the Lower Chamber, down from 247. Komeito now has twenty fourcompared to thirty-two who go to the polls. (Surprisingly for Komeito is the newly elected leader, Ishii Keiichi, who lost his seat.). The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), now has 148 seats, fifty more than it had before the elections. Not all of the LDP’s lost seats were won by the CDPJ, but it is clear that most Japanese voters have decided to shift their support from Japan’s conservative party to its liberal alternative, led by former prime minister Noda Yoshihiko.

Public exasperation with the PDL has been evident for some time. Two scandals have contaminated the PDL since the last election in 2021. One was revealed after assassin of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. The gunman who killed Abe confessed that he did it because his family was preyed upon by the Unification Church, a religious movement in Korea originally led by Reverend Sun Myung Moon and invited to Japan by Abe’s grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, and continued to have a relationship with Abe and others in the LDP generations later. An LDP survey disclosure significant connections between some members of the Diet, including electoral campaign support.

Adding fuel to the fire of public mistrust was the revelation that the Abe faction had amassed a slush fund used to prop up its members’ elections. This led the Kishida Cabinet to propose and the Diet to adopt legislationwhich would provide more transparency to campaign fundraising. However, once again the long-time ruling party was seen as hiding election funding. The “money and politics” (seiji to kane) scandal is of course not new to Japanese politics, but the LDP has drawn the ire of voters for its careless handling of its finances. Forty-six LDP members were implicated in the slush fund scandal and twenty eight they eventually lost their seats.

The PDL will now have to turn to other parties to build a new coalition to govern Japan. The LDP and Komeito coalition now has just 215 seats, short of a simple majority of 233 out of a total of 465 seats in the Lower House. Another important goal going forward is the stable majority of 261 seats needed to control the legislative agenda in the Lower House. This larger number would allow control over committee chairs as well as agenda setting for future legislation.

So the PDL will need a new coalition if it wants to form a government. Two sides might offer the best options. The first is Ishin no Kai (or Japan Innovation Party), a party with concentrated support in the Kansai region of Japan. Ishin is seen as reformist in orientation, hoping for greater regional autonomy in a country largely ruled by Tokyo, but is also demanding on defense and foreign policy issues. Thus, perhaps it provides the PDL with a welcome political partner in terms of national strategy. However, it would be in tension with Komeito’s defense views, long seen as a brake (hadome) on the more demanding members of the LDP. In yesterday’s election, Ishin won thirty-eight seats. If added to the PDL and Komeito coalition, it would bring a simple majority with a total of 252 seats, but falls short of the stable majority that would help lay a legislative basis for a new coalition government.

Another party that has been at the center of media speculation as a possible coalition partner is the People’s Democratic Party (DPP). The DPP has very similar leanings when it comes to managing the national economy. With twenty-eight seats won yesterday, this would increase the LDP-Komeito coalition to 242, again a simple majority but less than a stable one. If there is a way for the PDL to include Komeito, Ishin no Kai and the DPP in a governing coalition, that would mean 280 seats – a stable majority and 60 percent of the total seats in the Lower House. There are also twelve unaffiliated members of the Diet now up for grabs, should the LDP be able to lure them into the coalition.

But what are the costs of this type of coalition formation? It’s too early to say what the negotiations might look like, but already Sankei Shimbun rEPORTS that talks have begun between the LDP and Ishin and the DPP. Of course, it is also possible that the CDPJ has its own coalition plans. With 148 seats, it is in a strong position to organize an opposition coalition to the LDP and any coalition it builds to govern Japan. At the very least, we should expect CDPJ President Noda to try to persuade the DPP to stay on his side of the political fence rather than cooperate with the PDL. Ishin would have less in common with the more liberal CDPJ, but if Noda could attract cooperation if it served Ishin’s regional interests. Preventing other parties from cooperating with the LDP may be the CDPJ’s best strategy. Finally, there is a possibility that the LDP and the CDPJ will find common ground. This would be a much less attractive option for Ishiba’s party, but under Noda’s leadership it can be conceived as a stable governing coalition for Japan.

A more pressing point in the coming days is the second question: Will Ishiba Shigeru be able to retain the long-awaited opportunity to lead his party and Japan? Coming out of a divisive election for the LDP party presidency last monthIshiba faced considerable challenges even before the election. The internal party vote was close, with Ishiba winner the support of his LDP colleague by just twenty-one votes. The narrow victory resulted in his rival Takaichi Sanae refusing to support his lead. Will she and her supporters, including rising leadership candidate Kobayashi Takayuki, now blame the LDP’s landmark loss on Ishiba? Will she and others call for him to resign to take responsibility for the LDP’s biggest electoral loss since it was ousted by the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009?

More time is needed before we find out the answers to any of the questions. Tomorrow, the LDP will meet to determine the next steps. And in the coming days, more information will no doubt come to the fore about what other parties might want in exchange for participating in an LDP-led coalition government. Expect tough negotiations both within the LDP and between the PDL and smaller parties that would like to have more influence over Japan’s future.

What comes next depends on the Conservative party’s ability to reformulate its goals. Whether this is possible depends on the ability of Japanese conservatives to agree with each other.