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Predictions revisited from Indiana’s 31-17 win over Washington
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Predictions revisited from Indiana’s 31-17 win over Washington

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana football is setting so many milestones that they only have to line up for attention among a growing group of historic honors.

By now, you’ve probably heard that Indiana hasn’t stopped for a second this season. It is believed to be the first time in 20 years that a team has achieved this.

This Indiana team is now tied for the longest winning streak in school history. The only other two times Indiana went on eight-game winning streaks were in 1945 and 1967 – considered to be the best seasons in Indiana history.

These are both very interesting and important distinctions, but even some seemingly mundane milestones are pretty amazing in their own right.

Indiana’s 19-game third-quarter scoring streak, which would eventually break Washington’s back in Indiana’s 31-17 victory, was the longest the Hoosiers had since 2005. little.

Indiana has never been tackled for a loss by the Huskies. It’s the first since a 2013 contest against Navy, which was the only game the Hoosiers have avoided a shutout since 2005.

These Hoosiers keep delivering the goods when it comes to superlatives. What a remarkable run it was.

Here’s how we did with the three keys and our prediction for the Washington game:

1. Maximize Tayven Jackson’s skill set

Tayven Jackson

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Tayven Jackson (2) walks to the locker room after defeating the Washington Huskies at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Images Images

As I wrote on Saturday, Indiana did a pretty good job of making sure the game plan was what Jackson could do.

One of the tools we have available is statbroadcast and its advanced statistics. One of the things he looks for is the types of passes.

Jackson completed 4 of 6 screen passes for 10 yards. Completed 2 of 3 short passes for 14 yards. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 44 yards. Completed 2 of 4 passes for 64 yards on deep passes.

He favored the left side of the field, where he completed 6 of 8 passes.

To put those stats into perspective, Indiana didn’t force Jackson to do anything he wasn’t capable of doing. He’s smart, and that’s a credit to Jackson for not forcing anything.

2. Make Jonah Coleman pay an early price

Jonah Coleman

Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (1) is tackled by Indiana Hoosiers defensive back Amare Ferrell (25) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. / Jacob Musselman-Images Images

Indiana succeeded more or less as I wrote. Coleman didn’t gain more than four yards on any of his first eight carries, but I want to change the subject.

For all the advanced statistics we have available. For all the advanced statistics that were invented by people smarter than me? From time to time, perspective can be gained through old math.

When I was in school, when dinosaurs walked the Earth, we learned mean, median and mode.

Coleman rushed for 105 yards on 19 carries. This is an average (average) of 5.5 meters per carry. Mean is used a lot in all sports. The mode is the most frequently occurring number in a group of numbers. This doesn’t work as well for football, as even good players are more likely to have lower earnings than the top ones.

Median, however, sheds an interesting light on any player’s day.

Coleman gained 105 yards, and while you can’t take that away from him, it’s also a number that can be skewed in terms of how impactful he was for the entire game.

What I mean is one of Coleman’s carries was 46 yards. He accounted for 43 percent of his yardage.

Median sheds light on the entire impact. If you’re not a math whiz—trust me, your current company is definitely included—the median is the middle number in a group of numbers ordered from highest to lowest.

Coleman helped me with 19 wickets, so there is a certain middle number. The median for Coleman is 2. Coleman had nine more carries than two and nine fewer carries. That’s a pretty good indicator of how effective Indiana’s run defense is.

For comparison purposes, Indiana running back Judge Ellison, who rushed for 123 yards, averaged 4. If the middle of your production gives you a theoretical first down every time you run the ball consecutively, you’re on to something.

The old-school median reveals that even though Coleman broke a big gain, Indiana did the job and contained him for the most part.

I knew the outdated 1980s math I learned would pay off someday!

3. Keep Washington Doubtful in the Red Zone

This never happened. Washington was 3-for-3 on his trips into the red zone and scored 17 points. It was identical to the Indiana production.

Washington ranked 16th in the Big Ten in red zone offense entering the contest, but the Huskies did a good job of shaking that habit against the Hoosiers.

foresight

Indiana football

The Indiana Hoosiers celebrate in front of the student section after the Indiana vs. Washington football game at Memorial Stadium on Oct. 26, 2024. / Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I felt overly conservative in my picks throughout the season and finally paid a price when Indiana blew out Nebraska by 49 in Week 8. So, against my better judgment — I thought Washington presented some matchup problems for the Hoosiers — I went big and predicted a 31-10 Indiana win.

I’m relatively happy with that choice. We took Indiana’s points just right and came within a touchdown of Washington’s total, which isn’t too bad.

I’ve written before: “Indiana’s running game will be strong, Jackson will hold things down in the passing game, and Washington will struggle to break down a confident defense.” Apart from the last part, that’s more or less how it went.

Chalk all this up to a good crystal ball. Or a locked clock is correct twice a day. Whichever applies.