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Overall, the target rate for Nabers this year is just absurd, even last week.

It has the highest participation on the route at NFLwith the highest target share (34.5%) and also the first read target rate.

He is eighth in the NFL in total targets and 10th in total receptions, and that’s despite playing just five games. Every player with more targets than him played seven games and every player with more receptions than him also played seven games. The other player above him played six games.

The Steelers defense is good, but you can pass on them and they have also benefited from an easy schedule.

According to DVOA, they have played the sixth-easiest schedule of offensive opponents in the NFL. Taking out the Chargers game where Justin Herbert left early with an injury, Pittsburgh has only played two offenses that can pass the ball. In those games, the Steelers were lit up by Joe Flacco and Dak Prescott.

Michael Pittman Jr. had six receptions for 113 yards and Josh Downs had eight receptions for 82 yards in that Colts game. A week later, Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert had seven receptions for 87 yards and Prescott threw for 352 yards in that game.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Giants offense had a decent game, which is all on the back of Nabers.

Malik Nabers over 6.5 receptions (+120): 1 unit

J. Warren 35+ Rush. Yards (+135) ESPN BET

Now that Warren is fully healthy, it’s a 50/50 split with him and Najee Harris. Harris will get more carries than Warren, of course, but Warren has always been a more efficient type of guy.

Last week, Warren played 51 percent of the snaps compared to Harris’ 49 percent. In the games Warren missed, Harris played 69 and 74 percent of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps. So here’s assuming this will be a 50/50 split between Warren and Harris.

In both games in which Warren played about 50 percent of the snaps, he had at least 35 rushing yards, with 42 in Week 2 against Denver and 44 last week against the Jets.

The Giants are also a team you can run on.

On the season, they allowed the most yards per carry while allowing the eighth most yards after contact per attempt and the fourth most adjusted yards per attempt. That’s a horrible combination, being the top eight in yards allowed both forwards and after contact.

All that being said, this is a much better matchup for Warren than Harris. With big Dexter Lawrence at tackle for NY, rush attempts up the middle don’t have a ton of success against the Giants.

This is evidenced by the fact that the Giants have the sixth-highest stuff rate. Instead, it’s an outside run zone where you can be successful against them.

Against the Giants, opposing offenses averaged the fourth-most yards per carry when running zone concepts (with a 51.4 percent success rate), up from a 41.9 success rate at hundred to man/gap concepts.

Unsurprisingly, 78 percent of Warren’s rushing attempts were zone concepts. He has a good game tonight.

Jaylen Warren over 35 rushing yards (+135): 1 unit

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