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    • Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls
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    Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls

    Online Niel Posted on

    The top line

    Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race for the White House, according to the latest poll — the third major national poll in a row to find the two tied — keeping the race wildly unpredictable with less than two weeks to go . Election day.

    Key facts

    Emerson College Polling (October 23-24) released on Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), and is the first time in its weekly poll Emerson when Harris did not enjoy an advantage. from August.

    Trump and Harris are tied at 48 percent of likely Times/Siena voters POLL published Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” to Harris because Democrats won the popular vote in recent elections even as they lost the White House, The Times notes.

    The poll represents a drop in support for Harris from The Times’ previous poll in early October, which showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three polls in the last week shows Trump with a narrow lead and six others. found Harris driving.

    Candidates are dead even at 47% in a CNN/SSRS POLL released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48 percent to 47 percent in the groups’ September poll, while their poll just after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% and Harris with 46%.

    Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in one CNBC poll of registered voters was released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47 percent to 45 percent in a Wall Street Journal The poll of registered voters was released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51 percent to 49 percent, nationally among likely voters, including those who lean toward a single candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll was released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) and was up one point, from 49% to 48%, excluding so-called leaners.

    Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: In a Monmouth University Poll Of the 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also announced Wednesday, Harris has a 47%-44% lead over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” planned to vote for one of the candidates, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

    Harris is up three points, from 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov study of likely voters were released Wednesday (margin of error 3) when third-party candidates are on the ballot and respondents are given the options of “other,” “not sure” or “would not vote,” a one-point drop in the lead them from the previous group survey taken between October 12-15.

    Harris leads by four points, 50% to 46%, in Morning Consult weekly poll released Tuesday, in line with last week’s results but down from her 51%-45% lead in the two polls before last week.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has shrunk slightly over the past two months to 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted average of the survey.

    Important reminder: Presidential polls have been frequently wrong

    And there’s a lot of speculation about how they’re going wrong this year — and who they might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

    Who do the polls predict will win the election, Harris or Trump?

    Trump is favored to win 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight. electoral forecast.

    Big number

    1.4. Harris leads Trump by about that many points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. Meanwhile, the Real Policy Clear” poll average It shows Trump by 0.1 and Nate Silver has Harris by 1.3 points Forecast of the Silver Bulletin.

    How does Harris fare against Trump in the Swing States?

    Harris enters Michigan and Nevadawhile Trump leads Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina— though all within the margin of error — while Georgia and Arizona are related.

    Surprising fact

    A survey from NBC News published Sept. 29, found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54 percent support Harris, compared to 40 percent who support Trump and 6 percent who they said they were not sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly smaller than past gains for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in polls in 2020 and by 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

    How has the debate affected the polls?

    Pre-debate polls found Harris’ vote surge appeared to be reaching a pay level, including an NPR/PBS/Marist study of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5, which showed Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that most respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena POLL of likely voters released on Sept. 19 found that a majority of voters across all demographics gave positive reviews of Harris’ performance in the Sept. 10 debate, with 67 percent overall saying he did well, compared to 40 percent who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, virtually unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in the end of August and the beginning of August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

    Key background

    Biden abandoned of the race on July 21, after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He approved immediately Harris and she have announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99 percent of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as his running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46 percent in June to 85 percent now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71 percent, according to a Monmouth University. POLL released on August 14.

    Further reading

    New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% still decide (Forbes)

    State polls for 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump up in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Nevada 2024 polls: Trump up 1 point in latest poll as Harris battles Latinos (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Georgia polls in 2024: Trump leads in latest poll, but undecided voters could deliver (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Michigan polls in 2024: Harris leads narrowly in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

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