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    • How household wealth in swing states could influence the 2024 election
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    How household wealth in swing states could influence the 2024 election

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    With just over a week to goElection dayKevin Gandy of Loganville, Ga., has yet to decide who he will support for president.

    Gandy, 52, says he’s worried aboutinflation slowed but still highthe cost of maintaining the house and the totaleconomy – especially after losing his job as a software consultant several times in the past four years.

    At the same time, as an owner who has seen his property value increase by approximately 60% inthe post-pandemic booming real estate market, he says he has some financial security.

    “I’m not doing as well as I was four years ago (because of job losses), but I’m still in a comfortable financial situation,” said Gandy, a Libertarian who voted for the former president. Donald Trumpin 2016 and a third-party candidate in 2020. “And while I don’t think the economy is doing well, it’s not bad either.”

    When voters think about the economy, the high price of gas, food and housing are often at the forefront. Over the past four years, these factors have helped push inflation to a four-decade peak of 9.1% in June 2022, before slowing substantially in recent months. It is currently 2.4%.

    However, the biggest contributor to inflation — rising housing costs — has stirred mixed emotions. On the one hand, the housing shortage has led to constant increases in rent and housing prices. But for homeowners, it has given them a chance to accumulate wealth at a rapid pace. Equity growth has also outpaced cumulative inflation over four years.

    An analysis by USA TODAY, based on data provided by the National Association of Realtors, found that, like Gandy, as of 2020, median homeowners in all seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Carolina of the North, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—accumulated real estate wealth at a much higher rate than the average U.S. homeowner.

    The gap was most pronounced in North Carolina. While the average US homeowner saw their home value increase by 34%, the average Tar Heel homeowner enjoyed a 60% increase. Average homeowners in Arizona and Georgia saw their home net worth increase by 56 percent and 58 percent, respectively, while Michigan residents enjoyed a 47 percent increase.

    Aamong the three remaining swing states, home values ​​rose 43 percent in Pennsylvania; 50% in Wisconsin and 46% in Nevada.

    Home ownership has been the backbone of wealth development in the US since the 1950s.

    And now, in a narrow election between Trump, a Republican, and the vice president Kamala Harrisa Democrat, it may well come down to home value gains in seven swing states and the effect it has on voter intent.

    “What we do know is that homeowners are good (reliable) voters. If they have the cash flow to absorb the inflation that we’ve had, then they’re in a much better wealth position today than they were a few years ago,” said David Paleologos, director of the Center for Policy Research at Suffolk University. which frequently conducts presidential polls.

    He added: “It’s about perception. In a race that could be decided by a point or two, every factor counts.”

    How much have property values ​​changed during the Trump and Biden presidencies?

    From 2020 to 2024, the median homeowner in each swing state became wealthier than the median homeowner in the United States.

    While median home values ​​nationally increased by just over $106,000, they increased by more than $128,000 in Wisconsin, $138,000 in Georgia, $141,000 in Nevada, $145,550 in North Carolina and $162,000 in Arizona. Of the seven swing states, only Michigan and Pennsylvania fell below the national average, with increases of $94,000 and $84,500, respectively. However, both Michigan and Pennsylvania outpaced the rate at which their home wealth grew compared to the average homeowner nationally.

    During the Trump administration, by contrast, homeowners in just one swing state gained more in housing wealth than the national average, and only slightly. From 2016 to 2020, the average Arizona home owner earned $72,170 in home equity, surpassing the $72,400 earned nationally.

    The reason for the disparity in the two four-year periods boils down to the pandemic housing market. While Arizona has seen people move from other states and related home price increases even before 2020, the pandemic has accelerated and expanded that trend to other Sun Belt and more affordable states. Many of the swing states also became beneficiaries of this population shift as people began to work remotely and seek larger, less expensive homes.

    “Sun Belt states also saw strong job additions during this period,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Meanwhile, “Wisconsin benefited from the influx of Chicago residents and remote work.”

    How could homeowners influence the election?

    Statistically speaking, landlords tend to vote in far greater numbers than renters.

    For example, in the 2022 midterm elections, that gap was 21 percentage points, with 58.1 percent of homeowners and 36.5 percent of renters voting, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

    Interviews with housing economists, researchers and independent homeowner voters in swing states indicate that the additional financial cushion provided by rising real estate wealth could tip the balance in the incumbent’s favor.

    In fact, the phenomenon has a name: “The Homevoter Hypothesis.”

    RENT: Exclusive: The biggest rent increases are happening in swing states. Will it spell trouble for Biden?

    As Redfin real estate economist Daryl Fairweather explained, then equity gains or losses could change voters’ preference for candidates.

    She pointed to a study published in 2019 that found slower home value growth for Florida’s Latino homeowners made them less likely to vote for Democratic incumbents in 2016.

    Another research paper, titled “Housing Performance and the Electorate,” published earlier this year applies the “home voting hypothesis” to study the phenomenon in the last five presidential elections by analyzing county-level voting data.

    The researchers found that 77 percent of the counties remained partisan, voting either Democratic or Republican in every election since 2000.

    But 23%, or 641 counties, reversed their party vote from one to four times between 2004 and 2022.

    For every 1 percent increase in home value appreciation, voters who previously voted for the incumbent were 0.3 percent more likely to stick with the incumbent nationally. But in swing counties, they were 0.44 percent more likely to stick with the incumbent and not go to a challenger.

    “Swing counties are less politically polarized, and we find a greater relationship between home prices and voting outcomes,” Eren Cifci, a finance professor at Austin Peay State University and one of the paper’s authors, told USA TODAY. “When home prices appreciate, it might make them feel richer and make them more likely to vote for the incumbent.”

    But given today’s unusual housing market, defined by a housing shortage and high mortgage rates, home equity may not be all that homeowners have in mind.

    “I think for people who are happy with their homes, this will benefit the incumbent party, which will be the Democrats,” Fairweather said. “But for people who feel like they’re stuck in their home and can’t afford to buy their next one, I think they’re probably disappointed.”

    Jeff Linden, who is a registered freelancer from Doylestown, Pennsylvania, agrees.

    Linden, a real estate agent, says that while he’s happy that his 2,100-square-foot, three-bedroom home, worth about $460,000 in 2020, could fetch him $675,000 now, he usually hears from to its customers who feel stuck.

    “The overwhelming story from existing owners was, ‘I have all this equity now in my house, but if I sell my house, I’m going to be paying through the nose to go wherever I’m going,'” he said. “But on top of that, I’m going to give up a two and a half or 3 percent interest rate and get something that’s double or triple the —, that doesn’t make any sense.”

    Still, Linden will vote for Harris. He believes the economy will expand under it and believes the Federal Reserve has done a good job of navigating a soft landing for the economy.

    Home values ​​and voting for values

    Given the strong emotions surrounding the upcoming election, Cifci and one of his co-authors, Owen Tidwell, cautioned that equity gains are just one of many factors that could influence voter decisions.

    “This is a really unique election cycle with a lot of things that have happened and haven’t happened in a while,” Tidwell told USA TODAY, referring to Harris replacing Biden at the top the Democratic ticket 100 days before the election.

    Indeed, this is true of Susan Didrichsen, who has always voted Democratic.

    Last year, she decided to register as an independent in Pennsylvania.

    One of the main reasons for her switch was the way COVID-19 vaccines were being pushed by the Biden administration, she said.

    Didrichsen, a vaccine refuser who was then working as a professional singer in New York City, says she and her husband became outcasts.

    “People were yelling at us, calling us criminals,” Didrichsen said.

    In 2022, she sold her 500-square-foot apartment in the Chelsea neighborhood of Manhattan for six times what she paid for it in 1989 and decided to move permanently to her country house in Pennsylvania.

    Her home in Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania has increased in value over the years. Her housing wealth is part of the reason she feels financially secure and why the economy is not her main concern ahead of the election, she said.

    Her main concern is health and she is part of a growing homesteading movement.

    So when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. launched his presidential campaign last year, she was still involved.

    “He was an environmentalist. He fought Monsanto, he saved the Hudson River,” she said of Kennedy, who is also the founder of an anti-vaccine group.

    But when Kennedy suspended her campaign as an independent and threw her weight behind Trump, she decided to become a Trump supporter.

    “Trump has survived everything the Democrats have thrown at him,” she said. “I’m voting for my values ​​because Bobby Kennedy is going to be kind of a part of this (administration).”

    For Gandy, the Georgia homeowner who has never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate before, growing real estate has given him the confidence to vote for his values.

    “I don’t feel like a rich guy. But I feel confident in my ability to weather any economic difficulties that may arise from a Harris presidency,” he said. “And I’m willing to make that compromise to prevent Trump from destroying our Constitution.”

    Swapna Venugopal Ramaswamy is the White House correspondent for USA TODAY. You can follow X @SwapnaVenugopal

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