Prop Bet #1: Daniel Jackson 61+ receiving yards

Best Odds: -120 at DraftKings

It may surprise some people to learn that Minnesota Golden Gophers 28th place in passing rate (56%). Usually a team that keeps things on the field at all costs, PJ Fleck’s side made a concerted effort to let defender Max Brosmer throw the rock.

Brosmer’s favorite pass catcher was Daniel Jacksonwho has twice as many targets (61) as any other Minnesota wide receiver. The books pegged Jackson at 61 for Week 9, and I’m buying the Over given the volume of targets he’s getting.

This also qualifies as a favorable matchup against a Maryland Terrapins defense that struggled to stop teams through the air, ranking 92nd in passing EPA, 74th in passing success rate and 80th in passing explosiveness. The Terps have had a lot of attrition in the secondary over the past two years and have not been able to replace the lost production with a player of equal caliber.

It doesn’t help that they haven’t rushed the passer very successfully, ranking 88th against seven hurries and 98th in sacks per game (1.5). Brosmer should get time in the pocket when he returns, and Minnesota’s passing game should expect an above-average performance given the matchup.

Jackson averaged 63.9 yards per game a year ago and is at 64.4 yards per game this year. With the passing attack projected for an above-average game, that would be good news for the Over.

He was hit to start the year and most notably was a game-time decision for the opener against North Carolina. If you take out the first two games of the year when Jackson saw season-low targets due to his health, the fifth-year senior is averaging 71.2 yards per reception.

That number is more in line with what to expect from Jackson going forward, and I’ll buy his Over at a short number.

Prop Bet #2: Avery Johnson Over 40.5 rushing yards

Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel

It’s time for the Sunflower Showdown in week 9 ca Kansas Jayhawks face number 16 Kansas Wildcats. One player I am introducing is the Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnsonwhich is a dangerous dual threat that can beat you in the air or on the ground.

This year has been off to a shaky start at the points as the first-year starter has had some hiccups, but overall this offense has moved and evolved. Kansas State is averaging 6.9 yards per offensive play while ranking ninth in EPA per play and 16th in pass completion rate.

He should be successful moving the chains against a Kansas defense that ranks 81st in EPA per game and 93rd in pass completion rate. The Jayhawks have been especially prone to opposing ground games, ranking 110th in EPA per rush and 110th in rushing success rate.

The problems stem from a pushover defensive front (117th in rushing yards, 127th in rushing rate, 126th in passing success rate) that should be outmatched by Kansas State’s effective offensive line (ninth in yards and 12th in front of seven). It would be very surprising if the Wildcats don’t run with impunity in this game.

Avery’s recognition is set at just 40.5, so I’m buying Over. He’s eclipsed that number in three of his last five games, and there isn’t much of a threat for him to give up yardage on sacks as the Jayhawks rank 89th in PFF’s passer rating.

Johnson is an elite threat for a quarterback, and his legs are used when his team needs them. That wasn’t the case a week ago in a 45-18 win over West Virginia, but he’ll likely be counted on more in Saturday’s rivalry game.

Prop Bet #3: Evan Stewart 57+ receiving yards

Best Odds: -125 at DraftKings

There is a ranked matchup in Eugene this weekend as the No. 20 seed Illinois Fight the Illini face number 1 Oregon ducks in Big Ten play.

Wide receiver Evan Stewart has come alive of late for the Ducks, catching 11 passes for 245 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. The Texas A&M transfer was supposed to be an integral part of the offense from the start of the season, and after a slow start, it looks like he’s fully developed into a dangerous weapon.

We know the former 5-star has talent, and that was evident when he caught 53 passes for 649 yards and two scores as a true freshman in 2022. It’s been a tumultuous year and a half since then, though, as his numbers have dipped. just under a year ago (38 receptions for 514 yards and four scores) and preceded by a slow start this year.

Well, that all seems to be in the past, and Stewart is locked into a full-time role for one of the best offenses in the country. The Ducks rank ninth in pass rush and should hold a substantial advantage over an Illinois defense that ranks 118th.

The Illini aren’t anything special in the secondary (102nd in passing success rate) and don’t create a ton of pressure up front (81st in the front seven, 129th in rushing yards). Like Stewart, Dillon Gabriel should have time in the pocket to operate and find his receivers.