Confirming long-standing suspicion, the White Paper Committee found evidence of manipulation of inflation and GDP growth data in Bangladesh by the ousted Awami League government to bolster the administration’s image and project remarkable economic progress.

The manipulations led to the publication of fabricated figures by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, two members of the White Paper Committee told The Business Standard on condition of anonymity.

During Sheikh Hasina’s rule, the bureau would initially prepare the inflation data and submit it to the planning minister, who would then order the figures to be adjusted, they said.

Once revised to the minister’s satisfaction, the data will be sent for Hasina’s approval, where it will be further adjusted, they said, adding that the office will publish only the figures approved by Hasina.

For example, while Hasina was still in office, the provisional GDP growth rate for FY23 was reported at 6.3%. However, the final post-Hasina figure released on August 31, 2024 showed a growth rate of 5.78 percent, they said.

Economic data was routinely adjusted before release during the Hasina regime. This manipulation peaked during Mustafa Kamal’s tenure as planning minister, according to White Paper Committee insiders.

As for inflation, if the figure approached or exceeded 10%, planning ministers would refuse to approve the figures, the commission found.

Before stepping down on August 5, the Hasina administration released the inflation rate for the month of June, which was 9.72 percent. The caretaker government further reported an inflation rate of 11.66 percent for July, which eased slightly to 10.49 percent in August.

One committee member said that while manipulating GDP growth and inflation rates might not significantly change calculations of per capita national income, an increase in the real inflation rate would likely lead to an increase in nominal GDP .

“As long as nominal GDP does not fall, per capita income will remain unaffected,” the member added.

According to the committee’s findings, data manipulation peaked during AHM Mustafa Kamal’s tenure as planning minister from 2014 to 2018.

Kamal was abroad before the fall of Hasina’s government on August 5, while former planning minister MA Mannan (2018-2024) has denied allegations of data manipulation.

Mannan told TBS that he never tampered with any date, nor did Hasina ever direct him to do so.

He added that he advised the BBS and the statistics secretary to submit accurate data. “Many people have expressed skepticism about Bangladesh’s statistics and distrust of government data, so we have repeatedly urged them to always present correct information.”

Skepticism of BBS data

Skepticism around inflation data and GDP growth figures has long been strong among Bangladeshi economists. The gap between government figures and forecasts from organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF was stark.

For over two years, research organizations such as the Center for Political Dialogue and SANEM have provided evidence that inflation rates published by the government have not aligned with actual economic conditions.

However, those in the Awami League government, particularly the finance and planning ministers, have consistently denied any allegations of data manipulation.

Economists said the manipulation of such crucial data served to inflate the government’s economic achievements for political gain while hiding government corruption and incompetence.

Fahmida Khatun, executive director of the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), said there is long-standing skepticism about the credibility of inflation and GDP growth rates.

“Even without conducting surveys, economists could easily see significant discrepancies. Despite the high GDP growth figures reported, private sector investment and job creation have not picked up, indicating a disconnect,” she said.

She also noted a similar pattern in poverty statistics. “The previous government claimed success in reducing poverty rates; however, if poverty rates have really decreased, inequality should also decrease, which has not been observed’.

Committee to provide accurate data

The caretaker government on August 28 formed the committee to prepare a White Paper on the state of the Bangladesh economy.

The National White Paper Committee is scheduled to begin issuing validation reports—two chapters each week beginning October 31.

Debapriya Bhattacharya, head of the 12-member committee, said at an event yesterday that the first chapter of the White Paper will focus on illustrating how various types of data manipulation took place, including inflation, growth rates, national income, household surveys and balance. of payment statistics.

He also noted that when they sought information from government officials on these issues, many expressed helplessness, detailing how they were forced to manipulate data.

Also at the event, former Dhaka Chamber Speaker Sabur Khan expressed concern over the reliability of the statistics. “Our primary concern is data accuracy. Without reliable information, nothing can work effectively.”

A member of the committee said that since the caretaker government took over, there has been no further manipulation of the inflation rate.

Current planning adviser Wahiduddin Mahmud informed BBS that no prior approval is needed before publishing the inflation data.

The caretaker government on August 28 formed the committee to prepare a White Paper on the state of the Bangladesh economy. The 12 members are led by Debapriya Bhattacharya, Distinguished Fellow at the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD).