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ESPN FPI predicts a surprising result
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ESPN FPI predicts a surprising result

Lack of respect for Arizona State knows no limits.

Despite a 7-2 record and wins over four teams that were picked to finish ahead of them in the Big 12 standings, the Sun Devils enter Saturday’s game on the road at Kansas State as giant underdogs.

Of course, Arizona State is 1-2 on the road in the Big 12, with its only win coming over last-place Oklahoma State.

But to ignore the Sun Devils’ offensive and defensive efficiency — and marked improvement as the season progressed — is ludicrous. By every meaningful metric, Arizona State is a top 25 team in the country.

FPI Predictions for Arizona State-Kansas State

Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) will play against Kansas State on Saturday night.

Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) will play against Kansas State on Saturday night. / SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN’s updated Football Power Index (FPI), which is “intended to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season,” gives Arizona State a ridiculously low chance of beating Kansas State. ESPN FPI gives ASU a 25.5% chance. to beat the Wildcats.

Fortunately for the Sun Devils, FPI has been away all season. It gave ASU a 43.5 percent chance to beat Oklahoma State – a game they won 42-21. FPI predicts just one win for the Sun Devils this season. Here’s a look at how FPI predicts the rest of Arizona State’s games:

If Arizona State wins and finishes 7-2 in the Big 12, the Sun Devils have a chance to earn a spot in the conference championship game. Colorado is the X-factor in the title game race as the Buffaloes have just one conference loss and control their own destiny. ESPN gives ASU just a 5.8% chance to win and a 2.8% chance to win the conference.

Arizona State overlooked again

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham knows his team plays better with a chip on its shoulder.

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham knows his team plays better with a chip on its shoulder. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite a poor performance in their last outing — a 24-19 loss to Houston, where they were 13.5-point favorites — Kansas State started as 8.5-point favorites over Arizona State.

Kansas State (7-2, 4-2) and Arizona State (7-2, 4-2) have identical records and very similar resumes, however the Wildcats have been ranked in the AP Top 25 all season and are ranked No. 16 . in the college football playoff rankings.

The Sun Devils haven’t sniffed a top 25 and certainly aren’t featured in the CFP rankings.

“I definitely feel it,” Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham said. “We showed everyone who says we’re not good yet and we haven’t played anyone. We showed them we’re one of the few two-win teams that are still unranked.”

The Sun Devils have one more opportunity to prove their doubters wrong on Saturday night.

Arizona State at Kansas State betting odds

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook

Moneyline: Arizona State +225, Kansas State -280

Spread: Kansas State -17.5 (-105)

Over/Under: 51.5

Our prediction: Arizona State 31, Kansas State 30

Start time: Saturday, November 16 at 5:00 PM MST/6:00 PM CT

TV channel: ESPN

Stream live online: Stream Arizona State-Kansas State live fuboTV (Start Free Trial)

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