Falcons (6-4) at Broncos (5-5)

When: Sunday, 2:05 PM MT

Where: Empower Field at Mile High Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/FOX

Broncos-Falcons series: Denver is 8-7 in 15 regular season games dating back to 1970; The Broncos lost 34-27 in the last meeting on Nov. 8, 2020 in Atlanta and have dropped two straight against the Falcons.

Spotlight: Atlanta’s biggest weakness could set up a big day for Bo Nix

Facing the Saints in Week 10, the Falcons did their best to put pressure on quarterback Derek Carr. Their efforts were unsuccessful.

The Falcons punted at their second-highest rate of the season (48.1 percent), but generated just two pressures and failed to record a sack, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Carr didn’t flinch in the face of Atlanta’s pass rush, throwing for 125 yards and a touchdown when hit during a stunning 20-17 win over the Falcons.

Atlanta’s struggles to generate pressure have been glaring this fall. The Falcons have the lowest pressure rate (27.4%) and total sacks (nine) in the league. However, their biggest problem could be good for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, who is now headed in the right direction.

During the 2024 draft, the Falcons had a chance to address their pass rush issues. Jared Verse, one of the top rushers in this year’s class, was available when they were on the clock with the eighth overall pick.

Instead, Atlanta shocked the football world by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. despite signing four-time Pro Bowler Kirk Cousins ​​to a lucrative deal just weeks earlier. And 10 weeks into the season, Verse, who went 19th overall to the Rams, was one of the best defensive rookies in the league. He collected 4.5 sacks and 45 pressures – sixth most in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ sack leader, defensive lineman Grady Jarrett, has just 2.5. Veteran linebacker Matt Judon, a four-time Pro Bowl selection, has 1.5 sacks and 17 pressures. Judon has had a pressure rate below 10% in four of his last five games.

The Falcons had five games with fewer than five pressures. Sunday’s loss marked the sixth time they haven’t recorded a sack. They also haven’t had a sack in three of their last five games.

Denver, on the other hand, has been among the best in the league at protecting the quarterback. The Broncos allowed the seventh-lowest pressure rate (29.1 percent), while Nix was sacked just 17 times, according to Next Gen Stats.

Broncos left tackle Garrett Bolles had a penalty problem but was effective in pass protection. He has given up one sack and has the sixth-lowest pressure rate (5.5%) among offensive tackles with a minimum of 200 pass-blocking snaps, according to Next Gen Stats.

Nix is ​​newly drafted by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Week after throwing for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs. Despite the number of talented players in Atlanta’s secondary, including safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates III, Denver’s clear advantage in the trenches gives the former Oregon signal-caller a chance to build on his performance in Kansas City.

Who has the edge?

When the Broncos run

Against the bosses, Audric Estime showed signs he could be Denver’s best running back, leading the way with 14 carries for 53 yards. His ability to use his size to cut down the field is something the team needs. The rookie is averaging 5.1 yards on 29 carries. The Falcons held the Saints to 96 yards on the ground last week. It was the first time Atlanta gave up less than 100 yards rushing in 2024. Edge: Really

When the Broncos come through

Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton has seen his production increase in recent weeks. He has totaled 345 yards on 25 receptions over the last five games. His performance against Kansas City (six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown) was his fifth game with at least 60 yards this season. Falcons cornerback AJ Terrell hauled in 31 catches for 376 yards and four touchdowns. He has recorded an interception in two of Atlanta’s last four games. Edge: Really

When the hawks run

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson is a problem. He’s posted more than 100 receiving yards in five straight games — the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest by a Falcons player since wide receiver Julio Jones in 2018, according to Next Gen Stats. Denver, however, will have more to worry about than Robinson. Running back Tyler Allgeier has 85 carries for 429 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Broncos were solid against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per carry – fifth best in the league. They will be tested on Sunday. Edge: The Falcons

When the falcons pass

Atlanta’s pick-your-poison offense, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins, could threaten to extend Denver’s losing streak to three games. The Falcons have five players with at least 300 receiving yards, including wide receiver Drake London (58 catches for 649 yards and six touchdowns). The key for the Broncos will be putting pressure on Cousins. Denver had 20 pressures against the Chiefs, which helped the team stay in the game until the end. Edge: Really

Special teams

The Broncos and Falcons both had woeful performances on special teams last week. A blocked field goal ended Denver’s chance to secure its biggest upset of the season. Meanwhile, Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo went 1-for-4 on field goal attempts in the loss to New Orleans. But the Broncos were effective overall in the kicking and return game. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

Sean Payton is starting to learn what works well for his offense. And that was evident during the two touchdown runs at Arrowhead Stadium. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph responded well after seeing his unit beat by the Ravens in Week 9. Under first-year head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons, winners of two of their last three games, are off to a good start despite issues with of defense. Edge: Broncos

The story of the tape

(Click here to view the chart on mobile.)

By the numbers

10: Touchdown passes thrown by Broncos QB Bo Nix

569: Receiving yards for Broncos WR Courtland Sutton

7: Sacks recorded by Broncos OLB Nik Bonitto

31: Career interceptions for Falcons S Justin Simmons

8.1: Yards per reception for Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

You bet on it

Falcons 3rd quarter winner (-102): Denver’s offensive struggles in the third quarter could be beneficial for the Falcons. Through 10 games, the Broncos (57.4) are 29th in third-quarter total yards and last in passing yards (28.1). They have been held scoreless in the third in the last two games.

Broncos first scoring play, touchdown (-180): Denver scored a touchdown on its first scoring drive in three straight games. Every score was a passing touchdown, including two by Bo Nix and one by Courtland Sutton. With Atlanta’s inconsistent pass defense, Nix has a chance to increase his passing touchdown total on Sunday.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, drunken writer: Broncos 28, Falcons 27

It feels like a raging matchup given the way Kirk Cousins ​​has played, the diversity of Atlanta’s offense and the group’s terrific running game. It’s the kind of challenge that can test even the best secondary. The brain keeps saying “angry alert”. Sometimes you go with your gut instead. And instinct says Sean Payton’s team is up for the challenge.

Ryan McFadden, Drunk Writer: Broncos 24, Falcons 21

Inside the Kansas City locker room, the Broncos were frustrated at letting a win over the defending champs slip through their fingers. Expect Denver to carry that aggression into Sunday’s game against Atlanta. Bo Nix will take advantage of Atlanta’s inability to generate pressure and have a strong performance at home.

Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Falcons 20

The Broncos insist this team is different. It’s time to prove it. If they are a playoff team, they have to win at home against a good team. Bo Nix will join Peyton Manning as the only rookie QB to pass for at least 200 yards and more touchdowns in four consecutive home games. And Denver will benefit, as Younghoe Koo misses a key shot, remaining on the mark since Week 4 (8 for 15).