SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Tropical Storm Sara is slowing down. This will begin a period of very slow movement and increase the dangers of flash flooding and mudslides over the coastal and mountainous portions of Honduras and Belize. Belize has issued a tropical storm warning. More than 20 inches of rain is expected.

The only hope for Sara to strengthen and move into Gulf waters appears to be to defy all odds and take a more easterly path around the coast of Central America to maximize her time on the water. However, all global models and intensity guidance bet against this. By far, the most likely scenario is for Sara to strengthen a bit over the next few days as it lingers off the coast of Honduras, then makes a long landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. Cut off from the humid air and warm water fuels and struggling to maintain circulation in the mountainous terrain, Sara will become exhausted. What will remain is a large moisture slug that may interact with an approaching cold front to pull some heavy rain showers as it moves across the Gulf.

The weather may begin to deteriorate by late Wednesday or Thursday as Sara’s remnants begin to turn northeast and pick up speed. As it approaches, it will begin to spread showers and possibly thunderstorms across the Suncoast. Models differ in timing, but this would be the general drift of the forecast.

Today’s forecast is much simpler. The second cold front of the week will move through this morning and bring significant and welcome changes to the weekend weather. As the front passes our winds shift to the north and draw in drier, cooler air. This air mass change will bring delightfully lower seasonal temperatures and dew points for today’s weather and again Saturday and Sunday. With highs in the near 80-degree range over the weekend, most of the day will be spent in the comfortable 70s with wall-to-wall sunshine. There will be no chance of showers until next week, although we could use a few.

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