With sales volume in the national, regional and local real estate markets stagnating at 30-year lows, there are signs that some North Bay residents finally seem poised to get back to buy housespartly inspired by lower interest rates.

Housing markets are heavily influenced by interest rates, the supply of available housing and buyer sentiment or confidence. When these things are in alignment, our markets can have an incredible cadence that leads to long growth cycles. If they are not, then our markets are exhibiting the stagnant nature they have had for the past 24 months. Recent sales data indicates a shift as we move through winter and spring.

Conformable BAREIS MLSSonoma County buyers successfully closed deals on 374 single-family homes in September — up 14 percent from last year at this time. Property owners delivered 295 new listings during the month – down 15% from 2023, along with another new all-time low for the period. Buyers were able to complete purchases for 327 homes – 13% more than the 289 units that transferred ownership last year at this time.

With October now in play, buyers will be looking at the 897 remaining available homes in Sonoma County – a significant 23% increase over the 30-plus year low we experienced last year at this time.

As the year continues to take shape, shoppers will make decisions about these deals, along with the debut of new ones, and decide whether to buy now or wait to buy. This will show up in a common market measure – the absorption rate.

The absorption rate is calculated by dividing the total number of homes sold in a month by the total number of homes available for sale at the end of the same month.

A high absorption rate – 20% and above – indicates that the supply of available homes will shrink, thereby increasing the chances of an owner selling a property in a shorter period. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15% indicates a buyer’s market, meaning homes are selling more slowly.

In Sonoma County, September activity left us with an increased absorption rate of 37%, highlighting that buyers are still working harder than historically to find the home they want – at a rate of the interest they like. That should also mean they’ll be more likely to follow through on the purchases they’re lining up this month, with interest rates on loans coming off their lows since the Federal Reserve’s last rate cut. Rates are now again in the range of 6% to 6.75%, depending on the loan product selected.

Marin County property owners entered 175 new single-family listings in September — another all-time monthly low and down 10 percent from a year earlier. These dire levels of inventory may continue to create a more competitive environment for both new and existing buyers looking to make Marin their home this year. Buyers absorbed 198 homes into completed contracts, while sellers completed sales on 149 homes during the period – just 2 more than last year – leaving the entire region with 391 homes available for buyers in October.

Marin’s absorption rate for the month gave up some momentum to close the period at 38% – more in line with neighboring markets.

A slightly different story to the east, Napa County markets remain flat for the fourth straight month. September saw the launch of 103 new listings – just 1 unit less than last year, leaving 397 homes available for buyers in October. Buyers placed 75 new deals in escrow — nine fewer than last year — while closed deals tipped the balance to 73 during the month — 12 percent more closings than the same period last year.

This combination of new launches, along with buyer activity, has allowed Napa’s take rate to remain at 19%, demonstrating that this market is stabilizing. This means that both buyers and sellers must be open to careful negotiation now that the playing field has adjusted.

Jeff Schween is a “Top 1% Realtor at Compass”. You can contact him through his website at SantaRosaFineHomes.com.