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    • Tropical Storm Sara forms, could threaten Florida as a hurricane
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    Tropical Storm Sara forms, could threaten Florida as a hurricane

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    • Tropical Depression Nineteen formed Thursday morning
    • The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Sara later today
    • It’s too early to tell how strong it will become or if it will threaten Florida

    Tropical Storm Sara formed this afternoon and is threatening to bring “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides” to Honduras throughout the weekend, according to the latest update from National Hurricane Center. A turn toward Florida is still possible, forecasters said.

    “We now expect this storm to spend more time on land in Central America. This will reduce the intensity of the wind before it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. This storm could be pulled northeast by an area of ​​high pressure moving over Florida. A sinking jet stream over the central US will create a path for this storm to be dumped toward Florida,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said in an emailed statement.

    “We could see heavy rains and flooding concerns in parts of central and south Florida next week,” he said. “Florida does not need more tropical storm impacts. Many people are still recovering and trying to rebuild after the hurricane landfalls earlier this year.”

    The NHC forecast expects Tropical Storm Sara to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday while in Central America before re-entering the Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen again.

    “If it spent days on land, that could mean a less defined merger with the front, with impacts mostly in the form of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the state,” he said. Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger in Tallahassee.

    “If it has spent no time or limited time over Central America, a legitimate hurricane threat to the Florida peninsula is a realistic scenario. That conditional threat would most likely focus on southwest Florida or the Keys, with the potential for a crossover impact to southeast Florida. , as in Irene in 1999 or Wilma in 2005,” he said.

    ➤ Spaghetti patterns for Tropical Depression Nineteen

    ➤ Weather alerts by text: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    Hurricane approaches in November are rarebut they happened. Next called the storm of the Atlantic hurricane season it would be Sara.

    Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 1:00 PM EST Thursday, November 14:

    Tropical Storm Sara: What you should know

    Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not depict the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    • Location: 15.9N 83.5W, about 265 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, 65 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border
    • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
    • Present movement: West at 10 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 998MB

    How strong is Tropical Storm Sara and where is it going?

    At 16:00 EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is moving west near 10 mph. A westerly movement is expected over the next two days at a slower speed than before.

    A slow movement to the west-northwest is forecast until late Saturday. On its forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras over the next two days and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some consolidation is possible if the center of Sarai remains off the north coast of Belize. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, mainly to the north of the center.

    Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

    Special Note on Spaghetti Patterns: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Sara

    Watches, warnings issued

    For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.

    Tropical Storm Warning:

    • The northern coast of Honduras forms Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
    • Bay Islands of Honduras

    tropical storm watch:

    • Northeast coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas north to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

    Will Tropical Storm Sara be the next hurricane to hit Florida?

    It’s too early to tell if it will, though some models suggest it could affect the state.

    In the NHC’s latest update, forecasters said a strong mid-level ridge is directing the system west toward Central America, and the storm will meander through this weekend after the ridge breaks up.

    Key messages from the National Hurricane Center

    • By early next week, heavy rains will cause significant, life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in parts of Central America, particularly in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua.
    • Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern Honduran coast and adjacent Bay Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
    • The system is expected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by early next week, where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates.
    • It is too early to determine what impacts, if any, the system could have on portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, by the middle of next week. Residents of these areas should monitor forecast updates regularly.

    Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Sara become?

    • From 10:00: 35 mph
    • 12 hours: 40 mph
    • 24 hours: 45 mph, close to the coast
    • 36 hours: 45 mph, close to the coast
    • 48 hours: 45 mph, close to the coast
    • 60 hours: 50 mph, close to the coast
    • 72 hours: 50 mph, over water
    • 96 hours: 35 mph, indoors
    • 120 hours: 35 mph, over water

    What impact could Tropical Storm Sara have?

    PRECIPITATION: By early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 centimeters, with an isolated storm of about 30 centimeters, are expected in northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flooding and mudslides, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere in the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized totals of about 15 inches by early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, possibly significant, along with the potential for mudslides.

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possibly in the watch area beginning today.

    EXPEDITE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in landward windward areas along the northern Honduran coast. Near the coast, the tide will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome .

    The colors make it clearly visible how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” said Rome.

    When is hurricane season in Florida?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    Forecast of excessive precipitation

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via text

    What do the watches and warning mean?

    A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area. A watch is usually issued 48 hours before the first anticipated appearance of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.

    A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere in the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    What’s next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for ours special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated with new information.)

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