As November’s US presidential election looms, former President Donald Trump has signaled he may challenge the results if he loses, casting doubt on a peaceful transition. Locked in a tight race against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has repeatedly argued that only fraud could make him lose.

“If they lose – I tell you what, it’s possible. Because he cheats. That’s the only way we’re going to lose, because they’re cheating,” Trump said at a rally last month, reiterating baseless allegations of voter fraud.

Trump, who avoided the fallout after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, also echoed statements of support for those involved, describing it as a “day of love.” Tutor reported.

The Trump campaign’s preparation to challenge the election results appears extensive and organized, with growing support from Republican officials and a significant legal strategy.

His running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, also expressed doubts, saying he would not have certified the 2020 election and, in recent debates, refrained from saying Trump lost four years ago.

An organized legal framework now supports those claims, a significant change from the post-election litigation of 2020. Sean Morales-Doyle, director of the voting rights program at the Brennan Center for Justice, described this year’s effort as “more strategic, more organized, more coordinated”.

Polls indicate that nearly one in five Republicans believe Trump should declare the election invalid if he loses, a sentiment some Democrats echoed about Harris.

At least 35 election officials who previously refused to certify results could now influence vote certification, according to the Washington-based watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics (CREW).

The Republican National Committee (RNC) has already spent months filing lawsuits challenging voter eligibility, which, while largely rejected by the courts, continue to fuel allegations of irregularities. Voting rights advocates say these headline-grabbing actions are designed to erode public confidence in the electoral process.

Electoral challenges and legal preparations

On election night, Trump is expected to claim any delay in vote-count signal fraud, echoing the false narrative that the 2020 mail-in ballots were suspect. Lawsuits challenging vote totals in swing states could follow immediately, the RNC indicated.

In Michigan, for example, the RNC filed a lawsuit in March alleging inflated voter rolls that was dismissed by a federal judge. Watchdog group Protect Democracy has labeled such actions “zombie trials”, predicting they could be revived after the election.

Experts anticipate that Trump’s allies may try to stop the certification of votes at the local level. As of 2020, some Republican-controlled local councils have refused to certify primary results, although the courts eventually forced compliance.

Congressional Certification and New Warranties

If the election challenges reach Congress, Trump could face additional obstacles.

A bipartisan law passed in 2022, the Vote Count Reform Act, limits objections to electoral votes and clarifies that the vice president cannot change the vote count. The law also states that only state governors can certify voters.

The non-citizen voting narrative is gaining ground

Trump has refocused his voter fraud claims on non-citizen voting, despite studies showing minimal cases. Earlier this year, Republican election officials in Alabama, Texas, Virginia and Tennessee flagged non-citizens on voter rolls who later turned out to be eligible voters.

Billionaire Elon Musk helped amplify those claims on social media, racking up millions of views, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Analysts such as David Becker of the Center for Election Research and Innovation believe Trump’s emphasis on the non-citizen vote is part of a larger strategy to contest the election.

Long-term impact on democratic trust

Experts warn that Trump’s stance could have lasting effects on Americans’ faith in democracy. “Democracy only works if people believe in it,” Morales-Doyle said, noting that a movement based on mistrust could weaken the foundations of American democracy.

Although election officials are prepared to combat disruptions, many believe Trump’s claims could erode public confidence in the upcoming election, regardless of the results.