AAfrican leaders may have been quick congratulate Donald Trump on his choiceshowing a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but there is little expectation that his presidency will change things for this continent of more than 1.4 billion people.

Following Trump’s victory, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country “is ready” to deepen ties with Washington. Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu spoke of a second Trump administration ushering in an era of “serious, beneficial and mutual” cooperation.

However, observers say African countries – once described by Trump as “shithole countries” – will certainly not be high on his to-do list.

Read more: How Asia is preparing for Trump’s second term

Low priority or not even a concern?

U.S. foreign policy hasn’t made Africa a priority for a long time — beyond viewing the continent through the lens of rivals like Russia and China, said Charles Ray, chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.

President Joe Biden has talked about Africa as a key partner, said Ray, who was the US ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012.

But not much action followed these words.

Africa “will be right at the bottom of (Trump’s) priority list” and any US action on the continent would likely be driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style,” Ray added.

Many experts agree, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy.

Murithi Mutiga, Africa program director at Crisis Group, says the president-elect is “a resolute isolationist and clear that he wants to withdraw” on various fronts around the world.

Some say there are deals to be made, even in Africa

J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to Africa’s Great Lakes and Sahel regions, says the next Trump presidency could seek a “win-win” situation in Africa.

That could include a renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which gives eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast.

However, U.S. lawmakers have questioned whether African countries are complying with the terms of the program or whether it undermines U.S. foreign policy and national security interests, Pham said.

South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition for its war in Ukraine, and its purportedly neutral stance on the war has been called into question .

Basically, don’t “kick America in the teeth” in ways that raise questions about compliance with such deals, Pham said.

Those who do “will be treated as pariahs,” said Ray, of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Africa’s countless health and other crises, abortion and LGBTQ+ rights

The main concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are heavily supported by US-funded programs.

“The situation is already bad for girls (and) it will turn into a disaster without these services,” said Valentine Damitoni, a mother of 18.

She regularly visits a local clinic in Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare, to receive a contraceptive under a US-funded program that allows her to return to school without fear of becoming pregnant again.

Max Primorac, former acting deputy administrator of the US Agency for International Development – ​​one of Africa’s largest development aid donors – criticized some of the agency’s programs in Project 2025a 900-page plan proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation to reshape the federal government.

In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism, and interventions against perceived systematic racism.” The document is said to closely align with Trump’s vision — though he has diverged from it.

Kiron Skinner, the head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term, recommends in the document that in Africa, America should “focus on fundamental security, economic and human rights” rather than imposing “radical abortion and pro-LGBT initiatives.”

New realignments in Africa, heading towards Russia and China

In Africa’s volatile Sahel region, soldiers are increasingly alienating elected presidents and riding anti-Western sentiment to sever ties with longtime allies like the United States and France as they turn to a new friend : Russia.

China, which provides infrastructure loans to African countries as mutually beneficial cooperation, rarely interferes in the domestic politics of recipient countries. Russia, the continent’s biggest arms supplier, is often in bed with Africa’s military junta.

Both countries, like America, have shown immense interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.

Crisis Group’s Mutiga says “the historical problem has been that the US and the West have seen Africa as a problem” that needs to be solved. China and others “saw it as an opportunity to be seized.”

Will Trump go back on Biden’s pledges?

The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least $22 billion in Africa and promised to do more. Trump, during his first term, has continually sought to cut foreign affairs funding, sometimes by as much as 30 percent.

Analysts are worried whether key US health, security and development projects will be implemented under Trump, especially at a time of worsening hunger and resurgent threats to democracy in Africa.

For many ordinary Africans, Trump is just a distant leader who can’t do much about their day-to-day problems.

“Trump … will not save us from hunger caused by our government,” said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.

Africa’s flashpoints, from Western Sahara to Somalia

In Morocco, many cheered after Trump’s victory, hoping his return to office would help the North African country continue its efforts to win global recognition of its sovereignty over disputed Western Sahara.

“The return of Morocco’s friend to the White House,” proclaimed the country’s Assabah newspaper in its editorial.

As part of a larger deal that included Morocco normalizing ties with Israel, Trump reversed long-standing US policy and recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.

Biden did not reverse that decision, but he also did not advance the Trump administration’s promise to build a consulate in the disputed territory.

Stability in the Horn of Africa is increasingly threatened by the war in Sudan and rising tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the latter’s business deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland.

Trump is likely to cut funding to Somalia and engage more with Somaliland, predicts Rashid Abdi, an analyst at the Sahan Research think tank in Nairobi.

What is stopping Africa’s progress? Maybe even Africa

The G20, the grouping of the world’s top economies, welcomed the African Union as a permanent member last year – a strong recognition of the continent’s more than 50 countries and something Biden said was “a long time coming”.

But despite this step on the global stage, observers say the union and its leaders have not lived up to expectations, failing to articulate their interests and present their demands as a united front.

“The question is often, what is Washington going to do, but what is really in Africa’s interest?” said Crisis Group’s Mutiga.

“We are in an era of transactional global relations and unless Africa can engage in a way that articulates its own interests, America’s (interests in Africa) will continue to be driven by geopolitical competition with its rivals,” he said he.

—Chinedu Asadu reported from Abuja, Nigeria. Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco contributed to this report.