Global investor and author Ruchir Sharma, known for his keen analysis of political and economic trends, has predicted that the voting patterns seen in Maharashtra during the recent assembly elections will be repeated in the upcoming state polls. Sharma pointed out that Indian elections often follow a recurring trend, particularly when state elections are held within six to twelve months of Lok Sabha elections.

Speaking to India Today News director Rahul Kanwal about the upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma pointed out, “In Indian elections, there is often a recurring pattern: when state elections are held within 6 to 12 months of Lok Sabha polls, same vote. trends are frequently reflected in state outcomes.”

Sharma’s observations are drawn from historical election data. Referring to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, he pointed out that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance – comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Sharadchandra Pawar-led NCP faction and the Congress – secured 31 out of 48 seats . He suggested that this result could signal a similar performance in the upcoming Assembly polls.

Asked about the implications of the recent Haryana election results for Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Sharma noted that while momentum and public opinion may imply certain outcomes, every state election in India is distinct. “I don’t believe in this impulse theory. If momentum was the issue then BJP would never have won Haryana because the momentum was so against it. Elections in India are inherently distinct, with each state’s voting behavior influenced by regional issues, regardless of national sentiment,” he said.

Sharma described the Haryana election as “possibly the strangest election result we have ever seen in India”. He noted that neither journalists nor party members anticipated the outcome, stating, “Not a single journalist who came back from Haryana said, ‘Hey, something different can happen.’ He added that even BJP insiders did not indicate an unexpected change.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, Sharma predicted a close contest in Maharashtra with a 50/50 seat split. He noted that while the Maha Vikas Aghadi gained ground, the real losses were borne by the BJP’s allies, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction and the Shiv Sena. His projections were largely borne out as the Mahayuti alliance’s number of seats fell dramatically from 41 to 17, the BJP’s from 23 to 9 and the Shiv Sena’s from 18 to 7.

The Maharashtra Assembly elections will be held in a single phase on November 20.