WASHINGTON – Big changes within small groups and small changes within large groups helped drive Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

The Republican nominee won by keeping his traditional coalition — white voters, non-college-educated voters and older voters — while making crucial gains among younger voters and black and Hispanic men, according to AP VoteCast, a poll of scope with over 120,000 people. voters across the country.

His Democratic opponent, Vice Pres Kamala Harrisshe made small gains—mostly with white men with college degrees living in urban areas—but not enough to offset her losses elsewhere.

Trump increased his share of the youth vote

Younger voters made up a larger part of Trump’s coalition compared to his voters four years ago.

This happened because Trump benefited from winning slightly more than half of voters over 45, while Harris won about the same share of voters under 45. But older voters make up a larger share of the electorate than younger ones — and that worked to Trump’s advantage. . About 6 out of 10 voters in the 2024 presidential election were older than 45.

He retained roughly the same share of older voters as he did in the 2020 presidential election against President Joe Biden, but also made small but significant gains with younger voters. In the last election, he won 4 out of 10 voters under 45. In this election, he won almost half.

Looking at the youngest voters—those between the ages of 18 and 29—Trump significantly increased his share of the youth vote. Nearly half, 46 percent, voted for him over Harris, up from 36 percent in the last election.

Trump won among voters without a college degree

About 6 in 10 Trump voters lacked a college degree, compared to about half of Harris voters.

Most voters in this election did not have a college degree, and most non-college-educated voters supported Trump. He won 55 percent of voters without a college degree, compared to about 4 in 10 who chose Harris. This represented a decline for Democrats — in 2020, Biden pulled even with Trump among non-college-educated voters, winning 47 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 51 percent.

Trump’s gains with non-college voters came primarily from right-shifting non-white, non-college-educated males, as well as younger, generally non-college-educated voters. But he also won over more non-white women without a college degree compared to the last election.

Harris maintained Biden’s level of support among college graduates, who made up 44 percent of voters overall. A majority of college-educated voters supported Harris, and about 4 in 10 voted for Trump. But that wasn’t enough when she failed to capture the same proportion of voters without a college degree.

Trump won white voters while making inroads with black and Hispanic voters

Trump’s coalition this year was largely white, just as it was in 2020. But it was more diverse than four years ago because of the gains he made with relatively small groups.

White voters made up about three-quarters of the electorate and didn’t change significantly nationally — about the same share voted for Trump as in 2020. He made slight inroads with black and Latino voters and each group. constituted approximately 1 in 10 voters in these elections.

Nationally, about 8 in 10 black voters supported Harris. But that was down from about 9 in 10 in the last presidential election that went for Biden. And while Harris won more than half of Hispanic voters, that was down slightly from the roughly 6-in-10 Biden won.

Trump has increased his share of black youth — something that has helped make him a key Democratic voting bloc. About 3 in 10 black men under the age of 45 went for Trump, about double the share he got in 2020. Young Latinos — especially young Latinos — were more open to Trump than they were in 2020. About half of Latino men under 45 voted for Harris, down from about 6 in 10 who went for Biden.

Harris carried the suburbs, but Trump held the rural vote

Just as four years ago, Trump drew more strength from rural areas than his Democratic opponent did.

Nearly half of voters, 45 percent, say they live in the suburbs. About half of those voters went for Harris, while 46 percent chose Trump. Trump won about 6 in 10 voters living in small towns or rural communities, while Harris won about 6 in 10 urban voters. These numbers were roughly in line with support during the 2020 election.

Education was a factor here as well. Trump made slight gains with urban voters without a college degree, as well as non-white voters in urban communities and rural areas. It also attracted slightly more non-college-educated white men in urban areas: About 6 in 10 supported it, compared with about half in 2020.

These gains for Trump among urban voters were offset, however, by Harris’s improvement over Biden with college-educated white men living in urban areas. She won about two-thirds of that group, compared to about half for Biden in 2020.

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AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, PBS NewsHour, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press. The survey of more than 120,000 voters was conducted over eight days, ending with the close of polls. The interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files; self-identified registered voters using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the US population; and self-identified registered voters selected from online non-probability panels. The margin of sampling error for voters overall is estimated to be plus or minus 0.4 percentage points. Find more details about the AP VoteCast methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.