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    • Football Michigan vs. No. 10 Indiana prediction, research report
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    Football Michigan vs. No. 10 Indiana prediction, research report

    Online Niel Posted on

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    Free Press sportswriter Tony Garcia broke down Michigan football 2024 Week 11 showdown with Indiana Hoosierswho are undefeated in nine games for the first time in program history.

    Fast facts

    Matching: Michigan (5-4, 3-3 Big Ten) vs. no. 10 Indiana (9-0, 6-0).

    Start: 3.30pm Saturday; Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana.

    TV/Radio: CBS; WXYT-FM (97.1)

    Line: Hoosiers up 14½.

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    Availability ratio vs. no. 10 Indiana

    Michigan: Out: QB Jack Tuttle (for season, retired), DB Ja’Den McBurrows (for season, undisclosed), OT Andrew Gentry (for season, lower body), DB Rod Moore (ACL), Doubtful: Will Johnson (foot), Week 10 missed: WR Amorion Walker (undisclosed), DB Jaden Mangham (undisclosed), LB Micah Pollard (undisclosed), Probable: DB Jyaire Hill (undisclosed)

    Indiana: No one was listed as excluded or questionable last week in a 47-10 win over Michigan State.

    Research report

    When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines found some semblance of a passing game behind Davis Warren, who is coming off the best game of the yearcompleting 13 of 23 passes for 165 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions against Oregon. Maybe the best part? Both scores came from receivers, one from Tyler Morris and one from Peyton O’Leary. However, it was tight end Colston Loveland again as the focal point, with seven catches and a career-high 112 receiving yards. While there has been some progress, Michigan is still 128th out of 134 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision in passing (134.3 yards per game). Unfortunately, the running game has now lost its legs: UM was bottled up by Oregon last week as leading rusher Kalel Mullings ran eight times for a season-low 16 yards while Donovan Edwards had 10 ports for 52 meters. Indiana won’t be easy either, as the Hoosiers are No. 1 (72.6 yards per game) in stopping the run.

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    When Indiana has the ball: Part of the reason IU has such a good defense is that the offense forces teams to immediately pass and play recovery. That’s because of a prolific offense that ranks 19th in passing (284.3), 30th in rushing (191.1), 9th in total yards (476.2) and, most impressively, 2 in scoring (46.6 points). The Hoosiers have scored at least 31 points in every game, with at least 41 points in five of six Big Ten games behind a passing offense that has five different players with more than 250 receiving yards and six that have more many touchdowns. It will be a tough task, clearly, for a Michigan defense that is No. 23 against the run (109.3) and No. 95 against the pass (235.8 yards) and will likely be without star cornerback Will Johnson again.

    Killa Kurtis: The man running the show for the Hoosiers, who UM head coach Sherrone Moore respectfully referred to as “their point guard,” is Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke. The former MAC quarterback completed 154 of 210 passes (73.3% completion) for 2,204 yards, 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Rourke, who also ran for a score, had surgery on his throwing thumb a few weeks ago, but that didn’t stop him from returning last week and shredding Michigan State for 263 yards and four touchdowns passing .

    Backed by Rourke, the Hoosiers are in the top seed of the College Football Playoff as IU looks to improve to 10-0 for the first time in program history.

    Curt “Google me” Cignetti: The runaway favorite for coach of the year, Cignetti took over after a run of success at James Madison. When asked what his recruiting pitch would be for lowly Indiana, his response was: “I win. Google me.” A quick search engine check proves that it is indeed true. He went 52-9 (.853 winning percentage) with Dukes over the past five seasons, highlighted by an 11-1 campaign in 2023. Named the Sun Belt Coach of the Year, Cignetti came to Bloomington with a lifetime record of 119-35 (.773).

    Spin Back: The Hoosiers are an incredibly balanced offense and that goes for their quarterbacks as well. Judge Ellison, a transfer from Wake Forest, leads the way on the ground, having rushed 111 times for 669 yards (6 yards per carry) and nine touchdowns, but Ty Son Lawton is just as capable. He transferred from James Madison, and the sixth-year quarterback, who started his career at Stony Brook, has 94 catches for 453 yards and nine touchdowns. The Hoosiers’ stable runs deeper than that. Kaelon Black has 217 yards rushing and Elijah Green has 26 carries for 186 yards (7.2 per carry) and five touchdowns.

    Tony Garcia’s two cents

    Programming semantics: There are still some skeptics who point to IU’s rather soft schedule. IU played a non-conference schedule of FIU, Western Illinois and Charlotte and opened its Big Ten schedule with six foes – UCLA (3-5), Maryland (4-4), Northwestern (4-5), Nebraska (5 -4). ), Washington (5-4) and Michigan State (4-5) — who have yet to gain bowl eligibility. Then again, the Hoosiers destroyed these teams, with the “closest” games being two-touchdown wins.

    Nothing to lose: The last time these teams met, in 2023, the Hoosiers opened the scoring on a double pass by Donaven McCulley (who is now in the transfer window and a UM candidate next season). Michigan then imposed its will and suffocated the Hoosiers with 52 straight. While these teams are not that off balance, Indiana is expected from Vegas to keep its two-touchdown winning streak alive. That means the Wolverines have nothing to lose. Maybe a fake field goal, maybe an aggressive call on fourth down, but there has to be some trend breaks to have any shot.

    foresight

    If the front of the jersey said “USC,” this team would be ranked in the top five. Cignetti doesn’t mind letting it go, Rourke is a veteran quarterback making his 43rd start and the Hoosiers’ defense loves to ruin a quarterback’s afternoon (just ask MSU’s Aidan Chiles). Maybe UM keeps it close early, but more likely there is an outcome that seems inevitable. The choice: Indiana 34, UM 17.

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