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Stocks flip, bitcoin hits record high as traders weigh Trump 2.0
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Stocks flip, bitcoin hits record high as traders weigh Trump 2.0

Asian shares were mixed on Thursday as the dollar held on to gains and bitcoin hit a new record high as markets tried to sort out the fallout from a second Donald Trump presidency after he pledged to cut taxes and raise tariffs with an eye on China.

The so-called Trump Trade came into full swing on Wednesday when it emerged that the tycoon would return to the White House after defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, while his Republican party won control of the Senate and looked poised to retain the House of Representatives.

The decisive win is expected to pave the way for a raft of business-friendly measures such as tax cuts and deregulation, although analysts warn that such measures — along with a pledge to impose import duties — could reignite inflation.

The prospect of higher inflationary pressure could complicate matters for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is trying to steer the economy toward a soft landing while keeping prices under control.

The central bank is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday, but there are now questions over the chances of another rate cut next month and the outlook for the new year.

“Those discussions may have to wait (until) a later meeting and cover four issues,” National Australia Bank’s Tapas Strickland said.

“Does the election result lead to significant changes to economic demand or inflation that justify a different policy path?”; have nervousness about the deteriorating labor market been overstated?; where is inflation headed? and what is the right rate level anyway? “

Still, Citi economists wrote in a client note ahead of Election Day: “The December rate cut decision will depend on labor market data, and we expect further tapering to result in a rate cut of 50 basis points”.

After a mixed day on Wednesday, investors in Asia continued to tread carefully.

Tokyo fell with Hong Kong, Sydney, Seoul, Wellington and Manila, but Shanghai, Singapore and Taipei rose.

That came after a successful day on Wall Street, where all three major indexes hit new highs, led by a 3.6 percent gain in the Dow.

With Trump expected to turn his sights on trade again, observers said it would be a key issue for Asian governments, and particularly China, after Washington and Beijing butted heads in numerous occasions during his first term.

“The main concern will be around tariffs and trade restrictions, which will have some impact but have been somewhat factored in,” said Joshua Crabb and Colin Graham of asset manager Robeco.

“Offsetting this is likely to be a more aggressive policy response in Asia, both fiscally and monetaryly.

“The first indication of this will be the stimulus in China, with the (National People’s Congress) scheduled to conclude on November 8.”

Traders await the conclusion of a Chinese government meeting on Friday to set out stimulus for the world’s second-largest economy, with hundreds of billions of dollars expected to help local governments and support for banks to boost lending.

In currency markets, the greenback held on to gains against peers after rising on the back of Trump’s victory as interest rate cut bets are cut and Treasury yields rise.

Bitcoin hit a new high just above $77,475 on optimism about the cryptocurrency’s outlook after the president-elect said during the campaign that he would make the United States the “cryptocurrency and bitcoin capital of the world.”