The 49ers are expected to dominate Tampa Bay this Sunday.

They are 5.5 point favourites. They are coming off a bye week as Tampa is coming off a gut-wrenching overtime loss Monday night. Christian McCaffrey could make his season debut. And the Buccaneers have lost three games in a row.

And yet, this game could still be tough for the 49ers, especially their defense.

The Bucs currently have the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense. And while they’re missing both of their star receivers — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin — they’re still averaging 5.1 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the NFL.

Meanwhile, run defense is a problem for the 49ers. Their run defense grade on Pro Football Focus ranks 26th out of 32 teams, and their tackle class ranks 20th.

Just a few weeks ago, we saw the Chiefs beat the 49ers without any starting caliber wide receivers. Patrick Mahomes didn’t even play very well in that game. And yet the Chiefs scored 28 points on the 49ers simply by pounding the ball between the tackles with Kareem Hunt, running jet sweeps with wide receivers and throwing screen passes to tight ends. The 49ers don’t defend these games well.

The 49ers’ strength is their coverage. It’s tough to throw over the middle against them because Fred Warner is the greatest linebacker of all time, and it’s tough to throw down because the 49ers’ corners are so good.

So if the Buccaneers try to throw their way to victory, the 49ers will likely intercept Baker Mayfield once or twice and win.

But if the Bucs try to cruise to victory, they might pull off the upset.

What an interesting test.

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