WASHINGTON – The election of Donald Trump as president for the second time and a Republican takeover of the US Senate could undo many of the national climate policies that do the most to reduce emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases, according to climate solutions experts.

When he lists the measures that make the biggest difference, he lines up with the policies and agencies that Trump has said he will target: President Joe Biden the flagship climate lawwhich directs money to energy measures that combat climate change, plus rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to limit the leakage of the strong climate pollutant methane, pollution from coal plantsand exhaust emissions from cars and trucks.

The changes come as more lives are lost in heat waves, record amounts of climate pollution accumulate in the atmosphere, the United States has been hit by what could be two of the costliest hurricanes on record and nations, which they will meet in Baku. , Azerbaijan next week for climate negotiations, have failed to take firm action to change these realities.

Trump, who has dismissed climate change as a “hoax”, withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement during his first term. He has vowed to do so again, calling the global plan to cut carbon emissions unenforceable and a gift to China and other big polluters. Trump also promises to end subsidies for wind power that were included in the landmark 2022 climate law. He said he would eliminate the Biden administration’s regulations to make light bulbs, stoves, washing machines more energy efficient. washing dishes and shower heads.

Trump summed up his energy policy this way “Drill Baby Drill” and pledged to dismantle what he calls the Democrats’ “new green scam” in favor of increased production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, the main causes of climate change.

Dan Jasper, senior policy adviser at Project Drawdown, said he also expects to see “significant reductions in climate policy at the national level,” but that climate action will continue to move forward at the state and local levels. And, he said, repealing parts of the climate law could backfire because most of the investment and jobs are in Republican congressional districts. These were expected to reduce US emissions by about 40% by 2030, if the law was passed as planned in the coming years.

In a call Wednesday morning, Scott Segal, head of a communications group at law firm Bracewell LLP, which represents the energy industry, said the climate law is unlikely to be repealed.

If Trump targets climate law, there are provisions that are likely safe. One is a credit to advanced manufacturing companies because it is perceived as “America first and pro-US business,” said David Shepheard, partner and energy expert at global consultancy Baringa. These policies will likely survive even the most extreme change. in climate policy, he added.

Far more vulnerable is an EPA rule announced in April that would force many coal-fired power plants to capture 90 percent of their carbon emissions or shut down within eight years, Shepheard said. The EPA analysis estimated that it would cut about 1.38 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2047, along with tens of thousands of tons of other harmful air pollutants.

Under a Trump presidency, it is unlikely to survive, Shepheard said.

Trump’s victory means the Justice Department is unlikely to defend EPA rules restricting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and oil rigs. Industry groups and Republican-controlled states have filed legal challenges to a number of EPA rules.

While it’s unclear who will lead the EPA under Trump, the agency is expected to begin a lengthy process to repeal and replace a number of standards imposed by Biden with looser regulations, including one on tailpipe emissions that Trump calls fake electric vehicle. mandate.” Trump pushed back over 100 environmental laws as president and this number is likely to increase in a second term.

Trump almost certainly is to restore drilling in the Alaska Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, continuing a decades-long partisan battle. Biden and other Democratic presidents have blocked drilling in the sprawling refuge, which is home to polar bears, caribou and other wildlife. Trump reinstated the drilling program in a 2017 tax cut law passed by congressional Republicans. Even so, no drilling occurred in the refuge.

“Elections have consequences. And in the immediate term, we will see a number of programmatic impacts on climate,” Zara Ahmed, who leads policy analysis and science strategy at Carbon Direct, said on Wednesday.

She predicted a rollback of proposed and existing regulations, a rollback of US climate leadership, including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and changes to the Inflation Reduction Act.

Ahmed added that while there may be an abdication of federal climate leadership, she is optimistic that states, including California, continue to lead in setting standards, supporting emissions disclosure and driving decarbonization.

Clean Air Task Force Executive Director Armond Cohen agreed Wednesday that states, cities, utilities and businesses that have committed to net zero emissions will continue to work toward those goals, which will continue to drive record energy installations. wind and solar. Governors in both parties are also interested in ramping up nuclear power as a source of carbon-free electricity, Cohen said.

Trump said he too is interested in developing the next generation of nuclear reactors, which are smaller than traditional reactors.

Gina McCarthy, the former EPA administrator who was Biden’s first national climate adviser, said Trump will not be able to shut down clean energy such as wind, solar and geothermal.

“No matter what Trump says, the clean energy transition is unstoppable, and our country is not turning back,” McCarthy said. Clean energy advocates are bipartisan, well-organized “and fully prepared to deliver climate solutions, boost local economies and drive climate ambition,” she said. “We cannot and will not let Trump stand in the way of giving our children and grandchildren the freedom to grow up in safer and healthier communities.”

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McDermott reported from Providence, RI

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