There is no base for the Democrats.

Donald Trump has won everywhere and will win the popular vote.

He did better demographically—he grew his coalition with black, Latino and young voters.

The US has become less racially divided by party.

Meanwhile, Kamala Harris underperformed Joe Biden virtually everywhere, as Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties.

His margin fell in just 240 counties.

Why did Trump do so well?

Trump didn’t just sweep the swing states, and none of them will be that close.

He closed the gap on Harris in a ton of blue states.

She picked up anemic wins in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Minnesota, while he widened his margins in red states to pick up big, generational victories in Florida and Iowa.

He flipped Miami Dade County, winning a heavily Latino county Hillary Clinton won by 30 points and 10 in 2016.

It took Harris’ fringes down to major urban centers everywhere, including Chicago, New York, and Austin.

What did the Democrats do wrong?

1. Biden stayed too long
2. The lack of a primary process, meaning Democrats were denied the opportunity to elect someone not associated with the Biden-Harris administration — which also denied them the opportunity to properly develop a message
3. Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Biden’s poll has not recovered)
4. Spending too much (somewhat) on inflationary stimulus during COVID
5. Managing Israel’s War in Gaza
6. Long-term attrition of the ethnic minority voter base without corresponding improvements with white voters
7. Trump’s enduring political appeal and Democrats’ confusion about how to deal with him.

How bad is this loss?

This feels like a much more devastating loss for Democrats than it did in 2016.

That year, they had a lot to console them – a massive popular vote victory, a narrow electoral college loss in a few seats, a solid ethnic minority coalition that looked like a solid electoral map of the future.

Roe vs Wade was intact and the Supreme Court was still balanced.

They have none of that now.

Instead, they’re staring down the barrel of a transformed Republican Party and a sustained inability to know how to deal with Trump and MAGAism.

In political terms, they have nowhere to go.

In Biden’s term, they governed exactly according to their own instincts — and it was soundly rejected by the electorate.

What does this mean for Trump?

This victory cements Trump’s position as the pivotal American political figure of this century.

Biden thought it would be the restoration of the old order – but Trump made sure he was its last gasp.

The Republican Party is now permanently MAGA and the Democrats will change too – the old liberal order is not coming back.

Economic policy will be more protectionist across the board, both parties more isolationist, politics more aggressive, and Democrats less likely to elect history-making candidates.

Politics will look more like Trump in the future, not least because his movement now has a natural heir and successor in JD Vance, an ambitious young VP.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have no clear leaders at all.