Election day in the United States it is now often considered Election Week, as each state follows its own rules and practices for counting ballots—not to mention legal challenges—that can delay results. But the truth is, no one knows how long it will take until the winner is announced this time.

In 2020, The Associated Press declared President Joe Biden won Saturday afternoon, four days after the polls closed. Even then, the AP called North Carolina for Donald Trump 10 days after Election Day and Georgia for Biden 16 days later after manual recounts.

Four years earlier, the 2016 election was decided just hours after most polls had closed. The AP declared Trump the winner on election night at 2:29 a.m. (it was technically Wednesday morning on the East Coast).

This time, both campaigns see the race as extremely close in the seven swing states expected to decide the election, barring one major surprise: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The size of the map and the tightness of the race make it difficult to predict when a winner might be declared.

Where can I find early signs?

Look at two battleground states on the East Coast, North Carolina and Georgia, where results could come relatively quickly. That doesn’t mean we’ll get the final results quickly in those states if the returns are close, but these are the first swing states that might give an idea of ​​the kind of night we’re in for.

To dig deeper, look at urban and suburban areas in the industrial North and Southeast where Democrats have made gains since 2020.

In North Carolina, Kamala Harris’s edges in Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home to the state capital Raleigh and the state’s largest city, Charlotte, respectively, will reveal how much Trump will have to take out of less-populated rural areas on who has them. dominated.

In Pennsylvania, Harris needs a big turnout in deep-blue Philadelphia, but is also looking to increase the Democratic advantage in the arc of suburban counties north and west of the city. She campaigned aggressively in Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery counties, where Biden improved Clinton’s winning margins in 2016. The Philadelphia metro area, including the four collar counties, accounts for 43 percent of the Pennsylvania vote.

Elsewhere in the Blue Wall, Trump needs to stem Democratic growth in key suburban Michigan counties outside Detroit, particularly Oakland County. He faces the same challenge in Wisconsin’s Waukesha County, outside of Milwaukee.