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Futures gain as US polls, Fed rate decision loom large over markets
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Futures gain as US polls, Fed rate decision loom large over markets

(Reuters) – U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday in an action-packed week for global markets as Americans prepare to elect a new president and the Federal Reserve to decide on more tapering of its reference rate.

A new poll showed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leading in Iowa ahead of Tuesday’s vote, even as growing bets on a victory for Republican nominee Donald Trump in recent weeks boosted yields in bonds, the dollar and bitcoin.

Stocks seen as bets on the former president’s chances of victory fell in premarket trading, while a drop in the 10-year Treasury yield on the recent issue eased pressure on the broader market.

Trump Media & Technology Group fell 5 percent and software developer Phunware, which made apps for the Trump 2020 campaign, fell 8.9 percent.

Betting site PredictIT had Harris at 53 cents compared to 51 cents – what investors are willing to bet for a chance to win $1 – compared to 42 cents to 61 cents previously with just one week.

At 5:25 a.m. ET, the Dow E-minis were up 29 points, or 0.07%, the U.S. S&P 500 E-minis were up 11.5 points, or 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 E- mini increased by 34.75 points, or 0.17%.

The winner of the presidential race may not be known for several days after voting closes on Tuesday and could lead to choppy trading as investors wait for clarity on the political implications.

The CBOE VIX measure of expected stock volatility is trading at 22.56, well above its 30-day moving average of 19.45. However, it is still well below the 34-41 range it traded in the week before the 2020 election.

“We are quite close to the historical top of the market … these lead me to believe that the upside, regardless of the outcome, will be quite limited,” said Sebastiano Chiodino, head of liability investing at Generali Asset Management.

Meanwhile, investors remained largely confident of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its November meeting, whose decision is expected on Thursday.

Wall Street closed Friday but all three major indexes fell for the week as a mixed set of gains from tech megacaps led to losses at some of Wall Street’s biggest companies.

Nvidia rose 2.4 percent after S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Friday that the company will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Intel shares fell 2.3%.

Investors are also looking ahead to US factory orders in September and earnings from companies like Constellation Energy and Marriott International before the bell.

(Reporting by Lisa Mattackal and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)