SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – As of 4 a.m., Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Eighteen is becoming more organized. No changes have been made to existing watches and warnings for the Cayman Islands or Jamaica, however additional watches or warnings may be required for Cuba or the Florida Keys at a later date. A well-defined center has not yet formed and therefore confidence in the track is uncertain, as are intensity forecasts.

We start the week with warm and mostly dry conditions continuing for the Suncoast. High pressure anchored along the eastern seaboard will continue to suppress precipitation and promote an easterly airflow. An easterly wind will keep us warm, as will the general, widespread sinking of air associated with the ridge of high pressure, and temperatures will be a few degrees above average. A dry air mass will continue to filter in and reduce the chances of rain.

We’ll get a better chance of rain as we move into the middle of the week. This, of course, will be due to potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, which will become Rafael as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico. How close it gets to Florida’s west coast will determine the exact impact it will have. However, at this point it looks like the major weather influences are likely to be higher wave action and slightly higher wind speeds, poor boating conditions and increased humidity which will bring a greater chance of rain. In fact, there is a chance for excessive rainfall to lead to the chance of minor localized flooding in Florida, such as street flooding or poor drainage area flooding. We’ll know more about specific local impacts in a few days, but this doesn’t look like the kind of major hurricane event the Suncoast has seen in the past this hurricane season.

Models are split between keeping the system a tropical storm or a low-level hurricane, although this is a very low confidence forecast as the system remains disorganized. The models are more in agreement with the overall movement of the atmosphere, favoring a storm that stays in the Gulf waters as it moves past.

Later towards the end of the work week and the start of the weekend, dry air will filter in again and increasing high pressure to the north will put us back into an easterly wind pattern with relatively dry days and warm afternoons.

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