By Christian Edwards, CNN

(CNN) – Moldovans are voting in the second round of a crucial presidential election that could determine whether the post-Soviet country stays on course toward Europe or falls back into the Kremlin’s orbit.

Maia Sandu, the pro-Western president, is seeking re-election after leading Moldova closer to the European Union than ever before as Russia’s war in Ukraine raged near its eastern border.

Sandu secured 42% of the vote in the first round, held on the same day as the EU membership referendum which was passed by the thinnest of the edges. Both votes were marred by a vast Kremlin-linked vote-buying scheme, which Sandu said amounted to an “unprecedented attack” on Moldova’s democracy.

She faces Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former attorney general running for the pro-Russian Socialist Party. If other Kremlin-friendly parties rally behind him, the runoff will be extremely close.

In last Sunday’s presidential debate, Sandu — a Harvard-educated former World Bank official who cut ties with Moscow — called Stoianoglo a “Trojan horse” trying to infiltrate the country’s capital, Chisinau, on behalf of the Kremlin.

Analysts say this is not just rhetoric. Valeriu Pasha, director of WatchDog.MD, a think tank, told CNN that Sunday’s vote is about “whether we will have a president who is elected by the citizens or someone who wins because Russia’s dirty money paid for it.”

Before last month’s vote, Ilan Shor, a Russian-backed oligarch, offered to pay people to work to elect a Russia-friendly candidate and stop the referendum from passing. Sandu said the scheme tried to pay about 300,000 voters — about 10 percent of the population.

Despite polling just over 10% before the election, Stoianoglo won more than 26% of the vote in the first round. Both the Kremlin and Shor have denied interference, but Moldovan officials have warned that the second vote could be targeted by similar schemes.

In addition to vote buying, analysts say the first round revealed real opposition to Sandu, whose first term was ravaged by successive crises.

“First there was the Covid-19 pandemic, then there was Russia’s war in Ukraine, then there was the gas crisis,” Maksim Samorukov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told CNN.

Although Sandu weaned Moldova off Russian gas, it came at a high cost for one of the poorest countries in Europe. Inflation briefly rose to over 30%, causing poverty to tick.

Some also criticized Sandu’s “cynical” decision to organize the EU referendum on the same day as the presidential elections, positioning himself as the only politician capable of bringing Moldova to Europe.

“The government’s plan was for the issue of European integration to draw support for Maia Sandu. It turned out the other way around: dissatisfaction with Maia Sandu dragged down support for European integration,” said Samurokov.

Stoianoglo is trying to capitalize on the discontent with Sandu, keeping a foot in both camps. He called for a “reset” of relations with Moscow and said he would be willing to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, while maintaining his commitment to join the EU.

As a result, his platform is a mix of conflicting policies, Samurokov said: “Either you support European integration or you want to promote cooperation with Moscow. It’s very hard to reconcile.”

However, Moldovan officials are preparing for a second round of elections marred by pro-Russian meddling. A defeat for Sandu would deal a crushing blow to Moldova’s hopes for a European future.

A Russia-friendly government could also cause new problems in Transnistria, a breakaway sliver of territory where some 1,500 Russian troops are stationed. Officials have long wondered whether Transnistria could eventually become a second front in the war in Ukraine.

“The worst case scenario is that if he takes full control of parliament, he gradually liquidates every democratic institution, including free and fair elections. After that, they will use Moldova as a bridgehead behind Ukraine,” Pasha told CNN.

Elections in Moldova will be held a week after those in Georgia, another former communist state where Russia is trying to keep its influence alive.

After the increasingly autocratic Georgian Dream party claimed victory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed that Russia had “won” in Georgia and was about to do the same in Moldova. Sunday’s vote will determine whether he is right.

The-CNN-Wire
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