Notre Dame vs Navy prediction and best bet

Who will win Notre Dame vs Navy?

As good as Mijar of the Navy was this season, jumping out to a 7-0 start that created plenty of headlines in hopes of back-to-back weeks of Army vs. Navy in December, no one should expect the Midshipmen to pull off this upset. The talent gap is just too big, even more than the gap between Notre Dame Fighting Irish and northern Illinois.

There’s a reason the Irish have won 11 of their last 12 in this annual game (they didn’t play in 2020).

To focus on the pertinent context, the Irish have given up six and three points in two of three matchups with Marcus Freeman on the coaching staff. The 2022 exception of the Midshipmen’s 32 points was still almost never. Notre Dame led 35-13 at halftime and then took off the gas, running a more conservative offense on purpose, as Navy’s only hope for a comeback would need more Irish mistakes. So instead, Notre Dame hung back and let the scoreboard look close thanks to a Midshipmen touchdown with just 1:21 left.

It’s all to say: The Irish haven’t been in a competitive game with Navy since Freeman’s arrival. This game may be more of a concern, but it should still go Notre Dame’s way.

My best bet
Over 51.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
When Navy runs a good version of its regular triple-option offense, Notre Dame sets up like it might only have eight possessions in this game. The Irish expect the Midshipmen to control the ball for half of the first quarter. It was the rare game former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly took the ball after winning the toss, an attempt to gain a lead before Navy could run out the clock.

The current version of the Midshipmen’s triple-option offense is much better than “good.” In five FBS games, the Midshipmen have scored seven explosive passing touchdowns. Even for a traditional crime, that would be a rate worth shaking your head at.

Combining a genuine passing attack — quarterback Blake Horvath is averaging a reasonable 148 passing yards per game on 12 attempts while completing 63.9 percent of his passes — with Navy’s usual ruthlessness, the offense ranks 15th in expected points added (EPA) per snap, on cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. It is no longer just an annoying offense, but inevitable. Now it’s explosive and effective.

Notre Dame’s defense has suffered a handful of injuries, most recently to junior All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison. The subtleties of the triple-option offense with an over-the-top threat will expose these younger replacements.

On the other side of the ball, the Irish offense is going as far as its running game goes, which should be easier against an undersized Navy defensive line. Notre Dame already ranks 5th in the nation in EPA per rush, a number boosted by the big plays Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price enjoy with decent enough frequency.

When the Irish offensive line opens marginal holes in the first level of Navy’s defense, Love and Price will turn plenty of runs into runs against the overmatched second level.

Both of these offenses turn quality drives into points, with Notre Dame No. 11 in the nation and Navy No. 2. Not that the defense is pushovers in those moments, but with mobile quarterbacks capable of converting inside the 10-yard line , effective and explosive combinations should result in effective finishes.

Same Game Parlay Notre Dame vs Navy (SGP)

Over 51.5

Blake Horvath anytime touches

Riley Leonard anytime touches

Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown

Notre Dame Money Line

Gathering three different scorers here is a bit ambitious, absolutely – but Horvath has scored in five of his six FBS games this season, recording 10 scores in those five games. Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard has rushed for at least one touchdown in each of his last six games (10 total scores in that span), and Love has run for exactly one score in each of his seven games this season.

Those three have noses for the end zone and opportunities galore. In a game that could turn into a low-key penalty shootout, making the most of every goal-line moment will become imperative – and these are the three ball carriers to trust with those chances.

Adding the Notre Dame moneyline to this similar game may seem like a piece of greed, risking an Irish loss as the only failed play of the SGP, but know that including that greed increases the payout by 17%.

Learn how to place a bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Notre Dame vs Navy odds

Notre Dame vs Navy live odds

Notre Dame vs Navy opening odds

• Notre Dame vs. The navy spread out: Navy +13.5
• Notre Dame v. Navy Money Line: Notre Dame -500, Navy +375
• Notre Dame vs. Navy over/under: 51.5

Odds courtesy of him BetMGM

Notre Dame vs Navy spread and over/under analysis

• While some dated Friday pick lines favored Notre Dame at 11.5, Georgia Tech’s Irish blowout impressed bookies more than Navy’s sweep of Charlotte did, lifting this opener to -14 on the first line authentic from sunday.
• For much of the opening week, money poured into Notre Dame, bringing that rate down to -12.5 by late Sunday, where it remained until Thursday morning, when it rose back to -13. 5 or -14.0 depending on the sportsbook.
• Sunday’s true open was at 55.5, a number knocked down within an hour, settling at 52 mid-afternoon Sunday through Tuesday evening, then rising to 52.5.
• The drop, in our favor, to 51 didn’t come until Thursday morning, with some cards going back to 51.5.

Notre Dame vs Navy betting trend to know

All six of Navy’s games this season have gone over their totals, as have two of Notre Dame’s last three and three of their last five. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Navy.

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