For some powerful players in the markets, the “worst possible outcome of the US presidential election” is a victory for Kamala HarrisKatie Martin said in FT. The decline or even disappearance of the Democratic candidate’s lead in the opinion polls – combined with “a big increase in bets” on her rival in the betting markets – “was enough to convince a good number of hedge fund managers that Donald Trump is on role. his way back to the White House”.

However, politicians still consider elections to be a “coin toss“and that betting markets are “unrepresentative and best ignored”. Meanwhile, BlackRock boss Larry Fink claimed the election result “really doesn’t matter to the markets” – a relaxed stance that it’s fair to say isn’t universal. . Many believe that Trump’s policies to impose “aggressive import tariffs” and launch an “immigration crackdown” are inflationary and will have a big effect on bond markets. “For those who hold that view, the Trump trade is very active.”