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Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? 10 charts to explain who American Indians will vote for in the 2024 US election

Online Niel November 1, 2024

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? 10 charts to explain who American Indians will vote for in the 2024 US election

With just days to go before the 2024 US presidential election, Indian-Americans, who constitute a significant and growing demographic in the electorate, are poised to play a crucial role in determining the outcome. With an estimated 5.2 million Indian-Americans in the US, of whom approximately 2.6 million are eligible voters, their political preferences are increasingly influential, especially in key battleground states.
Historically, Indian Americans have leaned heavily toward the Democratic Party. However, recent polls indicate a notable shift in this loyalty.
According to the 2024 Survey of American Indian Attitudes, only 47% of Indian Americans now identify as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. This decline suggests growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, particularly among older voters youth and men in the community.

Support for Kamala Harristhe Indian-origin Democratic nominee and current vice president, is also showing signs of decline.
About 61% of American Indian respondents indicated their intention to vote Harriswhich reflects a decrease of almost 7 percentage points from Joe Bidenhis support in 2020.

This trend may indicate that while Harris’ candidacy initially spurred enthusiasm among Indian Americans, she did not sustain the same level of support as in previous elections.

Mixed feelings for Harris

The Indian-American community’s response to Kamala Harris is characterized by a mixture of enthusiasm for representation and cautious skepticism based on broader political concerns.
Many Indian-Americans are excited about Harris because of her Indian heritage, which resonates deeply in the community, but Indian-Americans do not vote as a monolithic bloc.

A significant portion remains aligned with the Republican Party, and many are not swayed by Harris’ candidacy. For example, some Republican supporters express skepticism about her commitment to issues important to them, such as immigration reform.
Some members of the community also believe that Harris downplays her Indian identity in favor of her African American heritage.

As the election approaches, her ability to shake off these sentiments will be crucial in securing their votes amid a diverse range of perspectives within this influential demographic.

Key survey issues

Several factors are also influencing American Indian voting behavior this election cycle:

Health care and the economy: Like many other voters, Indian Americans prioritize domestic issues such as health care and economic stability over foreign policy concerns. These “kitchen table” issues dominate their electoral considerations.
Abortion and Reproductive Rights: Abortion rights have emerged as a significant concern for many voters in this community, particularly among women. Polling indicates that reproductive rights are a vital issue for American Indians, influencing their support for candidates like Harris.
Gender divide: There is a pronounced gender gap in voting preferences. While 67 percent of Indian-American women plan to vote for Harris, only 53 percent of men express similar intentions. This divide highlights different priorities between the sexes, with men increasingly leaning toward Republican candidates such as Donald Trump.

Growing Republican interest

Interestingly, there is a growing interest among Indian-Americans in Republican candidates.

Support for Trump rose to 31 percent, reflecting a modest increase compared to the previous election. Factors contributing to this change include:

Perception of economic policies: Some American Indian voters are attracted to Republican economic policies that emphasize lower taxes and business-friendly regulations.
Cultural resonance: Trump’s strong stance on immigration and his populist rhetoric may resonate with certain segments of the Indian-American community, particularly younger men who are increasingly aligning themselves with conservative values.

How will American Indians vote

The study suggests that the Indian-American community continues to show strong support for the Democratic Party, especially for candidates like Kamala Harris, but that there are notable changes that could influence election results.

Declining Democratic identification and growing interest in Republican candidates, particularly among younger men, suggest a potential realignment that both parties need to take note of.

Democratic Engagement Declines: American Indians remain predominantly Democratic, with 47% identifying as Democrats, down from 56% in 2020. The proportion of independents has increased, indicating a shift in political alignment within the community.
Support for Kamala Harris: 61% of registered Indian-American voters plan to support Kamala Harris in the upcoming election, while 32% plan to vote for Donald Trump. This marks a modest increase in Republican support compared to previous elections.
Emerging gender gap: There is a significant gender gap in voting preferences, with 67 percent of Indian-American women supporting Harris, compared to just 53 percent of men. In contrast, 22% of women and 39% of men plan to vote for Trump, highlighting the different priorities between the sexes.
Mixed views of Indian-American Republicans: Indian-Americans generally have lukewarm views of prominent Indian-American Republicans such as Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamyindicating a lack of enthusiasm for Republican candidates despite some engagement from the party.
Abortion as key issue: Abortion and reproductive rights are crucial issues for Indian Americans this election cycle, ranking as the second most important political concern, especially among Democrats and women.
Policy Discrepancies Lead to Republican Disadvantages: The Republican Party’s struggles with American Indian voters stem from policy misalignment, particularly on issues such as minority rights and abortion, which many members of the community see as incompatible with Republican positions.

As Indian Americans solidify their role as a critical voting bloc, their decisions in the 2024 election will not only impact local and national races, but will also reflect broader trends in American politics, making it critical that candidates understand and to address the unique perspectives of the influential community.