Chargers (-1.5) at Browns: A 1.5-point spread would have been a no-brainer a few weeks ago, but the Browns are at least functional now with Jameis Winston taking over as the starter for Deshaun Watson. I’ll take the Chargers to win, but I can’t put the points.

Saints (-7.5) at Panthers: The Saints have lost six straight games by a combined score of 177-94, and I actually thought I’d put 7.5 points on the road in Carolina. That’s how bad the Panthers team is.

Dolphins on bills (-5.5): The Bills destroyed the Dolphins in Week 2 in Miami when the Dolphins still had Tua Tagovailoa, and will do the same to them in Week 9 in Buffalo.

Broncos at Ravens (-9): The Broncos are one of the NFL’s surprise teams this season at 5-3, but this matchup will serve as a reminder that they’re nowhere near contending in the AFC.

Raiders at Bengals (-7): The Bengals have earned a reputation this season for playing well on offense but being let down by their defense. I think that was true earlier in the season, but their offense has scored a combined 48 points over the last three games and is far too reliant on Ja’Marr Chase making otherworldly plays. I’m definitely not picking this trash Raiders team, though.

Patriots at Titans (-3.5): Besides the bastards, who cares?

Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5): The Jaguars are the Eagles’ fourth opponent during their four-game gauntlet.

• Browns (2-6): w
• At Giants (2-6): w
• At the Bengals (3-5): w
• Jaguars (2-6): TBD

The Jags have a 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA, their top two receivers are injured, and they’ve already signaled that they’re putting a white flag on their season after trading their starting LT to the Vikings.

We probably don’t need to go too deep here. The Eagles are playing better and should handle the Jags.

Bears at Cardinals (-1): I’m pretty proud of my Miami Cardinals pick last week, and I’ve decided that Arizona is my official “Fraudometer team of the 2024 season. What is the Fraudometer? Well, if you can beat the Fraudometer team, maybe they’re not fraud.

Rams (-1.5) at Seahawks: The Rams are getting healthier and have a chance to get to .500 after a 1-4 start with wins over the 49ers and Seahawks in the pocket. This is an important hidden game in the NFC playoff race. I’d rather have this on SNF than Colts-Vikings.

Lions (-3.5) at Packers: All eight of the Lions’ games this season have been played indoors and they have a three-game losing streak outdoors dating back to last season, so I’m kind of curious to see if their offense still looks like an unstoppable in Green. Bay who has been in the last four games. I’m not going to pick against them, though.

Colts at Vikings (-5.5): When Eagles-Jaguars was dropped on Sunday Night Football, I was so happy I didn’t even bother to care why it was put there. It seems to be this bad matchup. The Vikings got off to a hot start before cooling off, while the Colts have a core level of competence because of their offensive line, but they benched second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco.

Give me the Vikings to win, but I like the Colts better with Flacco than Richardson and I’ll take the 5.5 points.

Buccaneers at Chiefs (-9): It will be too hard for the Buccaneers to compete with good teams without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Chiefs should go 8-0.