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The economy is strong. Maybe post-pandemic policies weren’t so bad.
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The economy is strong. Maybe post-pandemic policies weren’t so bad.

The news: US The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that the economy grew at a solid annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter, down slightly from 3 percent in the second quarter. Personal income rose and consumer spending was strong. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation fell slightly above the central bank’s target rate of 2 percent.

Flashback: The Great Recession happened more than a decade ago. But the stories of people who lost their jobs in that recession and struggled for months and years to find work are seared into my memory.

The Globe covered these stories as we detailed the impact of the recession and painfully slow recovery. These were people who had done everything right, everything that was expected. They had education, training and experience. They worked hard every day. They saved, lived within their means and planned for the future.

Nothing seemed to matter. They sent out hundreds of resumes, attended dozens of job fairs, and relentlessly networked. They used up unemployment benefits, burned through savings and emptied retirement accounts. They could only watch everything diminish as rejections mounted – and even worse – requests went unanswered.

I tracked down one of the people who let us tell their stories, but she refused to talk to me for fear of reviving the stigma that follows people who lose their jobs—even through no fault of their own. She noted in her reply to my email that she has never made as much as before the layoff.

Many long-term unemployed do not make it back. Studies show that even after they find a job, their earnings can be 15% or more below those who were continuously employed.

I offer Sharoneprofessor at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, interviewed more than 100 long-term unemployed workers for his recent book, Stigma Trap. One, an older worker with a PhD in mathematics from MIT, was laid off from a tech job and never found another position in the industry. He works as a cashier.

A tale of two recoveries: We’ve heard far fewer stories like this since the pandemic, as the economy has created jobs quickly. Long-term unemployment is defined by the Department of Labor as unemployment for more than six months. It peaked at 43% of total unemployment in March 2021, the same month President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion US bailout.

The stimulus measure, followed eight months later by a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, helped turbocharge demand for goods, services and ultimately workers. Long-term unemployment has halved in 16 months.

Compare this response to the response that followed the Great Recession. After approving roughly $800 billion in stimulus in 2009, Congress balked at additional spending to spur the pulverizing recovery. Long-term unemployment peaked in 2010 at around 45%, just above the pandemic level. But it took five times longer – more than seven years – to cut long-term unemployment in half.

The Last Word: As I wrote on Mondaywe need to start paying down the debt that fueled this remarkable recovery. In the meantime, could we please end the narrative that the economy is hurting?

I don’t want to minimize the effects of inflation or dismiss people who are struggling to pay rent and buy groceries. But overall, the economy generated a job boom that shifted the balance of power in labor markets to workers, leading to higher wages, better conditions, and more opportunities. If you’re reading this while working from home, you know what I’m talking about.

Recently, longshoremen have won wage increases of 62 percent over six years (about 10 percent per year). Boeing agreed to raise wages for about 33,000 machinists by 35% over four years (about 9% a year) before union membership rejected the deal. Such increases — well above the 2.4 percent rate of consumer inflation — were unheard of a decade ago or even five years ago.

Long-term unemployment remains a challenge. It has accelerated as the economy has slowed, rising from 17.5 percent of total unemployment at the start of 2023 to just under 24 percent in September.

The problem is not easily solved. A rapidly changing economy is creating a mismatch between the skills needed by new industries and those of workers who are losing their jobs in old industries, said Lisa Lynch, a labor economist at Brandeis University. But long-term unemployment is much easier to tackle when employment is strong.

“There’s nothing,” she said, “like a sustained economy that’s really good for workers.”


Rob Gavin can be reached at [email protected].