For President Trump, next week’s election could be a moment where two roads diverge — one leading to the White House and the other possibly to the big house.

As the president’s 45th contest with Vice President Harris appears to be ending in a photo finish, the criminal cases against Trump are headed for trial. The months of November and December are marbled with litigation deadlines. Most important of all, however, is January 20.

Then Trump could either raise his hand to take the oath of office and assume the protection of the presidency — the Justice Department prohibits prosecution of sitting presidents — or sit at Mar-a-Lago while considering an extended schedule of trials that may not end in acquittal. . If he loses, he also loses the ability to fire special counsel Jack Smith and dismiss the Jan. 6 and Mar-a-Lago cases.

Regardless of whether Trump wins on Tuesday, New York Judge Juan Merchan on Nov. 26 is scheduled to hand down Trump’s sentence in the hush money case involving attorney Michael Cohen and adult film star Stephanie Clifford, known as Stormy Daniels .

On November 12, Judge Merchan is set to decide whether the Supreme Court’s landmark immunity ruling in Trump vs. the United States may shield Trump from the 34 state convictions secured against the former president by District Attorney Alvin Bragg. Mr Bragg claims the Nine’s decision “has nothing to say” about the “guilty” verdicts he obtained. Judge Merchan’s prior rulings have overwhelmingly favored the state.

State crimes are outside the power of the Justice Department and the presidential pardon power, which only covers “Crimes against the United States.” That means if Trump is sentenced to prison, that ruling will stand even if Trump wins the White House. He would likely appeal such a ruling to the Appellate Division, First Department, New York’s original appellate court. He will not report to jail until the appeal process is exhausted. Governor Hochul has suggested that a pardon is not possible.

If Trump wins and is sentenced to prison, the Supreme Court could step in and suspend the sentence for the duration of his presidency. While the high court generally leaves state law to state courts, the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause states that “The laws of the United States … shall be the supreme Law of the Land; and the judges of every state shall be bound thereby.”

The judges of trump card showed particular regard for presidential prerogative, citing Alexander Hamilton for the proposition that “The Framers designed the Presidency to provide for a ‘vigorous’ and ‘energetic’ Executive.” The majority opinion warns against anything that would make the president “overly cautious in the performance of his official duties.” Going to jail would seem to constitute an impediment to the exercise of the office of president.

If Trump loses, he will be left without leverage to remove Mr. Smith’s impeachment. While both the classified documents case and the election interference prosecution have been delayed, the special counsel has a path forward in both — but only if the 45th president doesn’t become the 47th. The road to trial is trickier in the Mar-a-Lago case, where the charges were dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon. She found that Attorney General Garland’s appointment of Mr. Smith was illegal and ultra vires.

Mr. Smith appealed that ruling to the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, which could uphold Judge Cannon’s stunning ruling, overturn it, or even reassign it from the case if it finds that her handling of the documents was impaired by the presence of the perception of partiality. Many legal observers considered it the strongest of the four cases brought against Trump, and his charges stemming from the Espionage Act and obstruction statutes carry the possibility of decades behind bars.

While Mr. Smith’s January 6 prosecution of Trump was upended by the Supreme Court’s ruling that official presidential documents are presumptively immune — and some enjoy “absolute” immunity — it has found new momentum in the courtroom. of Judge Tanya Chutkan, whose rulings were totally against Trump and the January 6 protesters. She allowed the special counsel to file a book-length immunity brief, arguing that Trump “must be tried for his private crimes just like any other citizen.”

One of the charges imposed by the special counsel, for obstructing an official proceeding, carries a particularly heavy sentence – 20 years. The Supreme Court in the last mandate, in a case named Fischer v. United Statesnarrowed the applicability of the statute. A divided court held that the law is origin in the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, intended to combat financial fraud, meant that it could not be broadly applied to the events of January 6. Mr. Smith argues that, in Trump’s case, the match between statute and action is constitutionally perfect.

Judge Chutkan is expected to rule in favor of Mr. Smith, but as in almost all of Trump’s legal proceedings since he became president, criminal or civil, the matter will almost certainly be decided on appeal, where higher-level judges — including Supreme Court justices — have so far proven to be more open-minded about Trump’s arguments.

Any decision Judge Chutkan makes on immunity will be open to review by the United States Circuit Court for the District of Columbia Circuit and, potentially, by the Supreme Court. If Trump is ultimately convicted and sentenced to prison, however, he could be arrested immediately, even if he appeals. In the state criminal system, however, defendants are usually allowed to remain free until the final appeals court rules.

Trump also faces state charges in Georgia in the form of an expanded racketeering case brought by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. About halfway between election and inauguration days, on Dec. 8, the Georgia Court of Appeals will hear Trump’s request that Ms. Willis be removed from the case for her secret affair with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. The two deny that their romance preceded the allegations.

Even if Ms. Willis is not ousted, the case, which initially charged 19 defendants, could take months or years to unfold. Trump’s lawyers have asked for a delay until 2029 — beyond the horizon of another presidential term. The former president may also try to avoid jail in Fulton County, arguing that the Supreme Court’s grant of immunity blocks the prosecution of Ms. Willis.