close
close

Association-anemone

Bite-sized brilliance in every update

Ad Watch: Fact-checking Donald Trump’s final economic arguments
asane

Ad Watch: Fact-checking Donald Trump’s final economic arguments

As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump has released an ad full of economic claims.

Many are misleading or wrong.

Here’s a look at some of his claims 25 Oct ad“Never give up.”

“When I first came into office, I cut taxes more than any other president.”

This is one falsehood Trump has said repeatedly during his presidency. (Cel Washington Post fact checker found that this was Trump’s second most frequent false claim, shared 295 times during his presidency.)

In inflation-adjusted dollars, the tax bill Trump signed in 2017 was the fourth largest since 1940 and, as a percentage of gross domestic product, ranked seventh.

Sign up for PolitiFact messages

“We created 7 million new jobs.”

This is almost true if one erases the last year of Trump’s presidency, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Through February 2020, US nonfarm payrolls increased by 6.7 million.

If the pandemic period is included, Trump ended his presidency with 3.1 million jobs.

The Trump economy “led to growth like we’ve never seen before.”

Annual increases in gross domestic product — the sum of a country’s economic activity — have been broadly similar under Trump and the last six years of his predecessor, Barack Obama. And GDP growth under Trump was well below that of previous presidentsincluding John F. Kennedy, Lyndon B. Johnson, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

“Household Net Worth at All-Time Highs”.

Trump has an idea that net worth of the household reached a new high by the end of his presidency. But he leaves out an important piece of context: That measure continued to rise under his successor, President Joe Biden.

Today, household net worth is 24% higher than it was when Trump left office.

A related measure—household net worth as a share of disposable personal income — shows similar growth under Biden. That figure is 12 percent higher now than when Trump left office.

“We have developed by far the largest economy in history.”

False. Under Trump, the unemployment rate has reached lows not seen since the 1950s, although that rate has fallen even less under Biden.

But others Metra under Trump – including gross domestic product, as noted above – has not broken US records.

Adjusted for inflation, wages began to rise under Obama and have continued to rise under Trump. But economists say those gains have been modest compared to what was seen in the 1960s.

Another measure economists use to address this question — the increase in consumption of goods and services per person, adjusted for inflation — was no higher under Trump than under previous presidents. In Trump’s three years in office through January 2020, real consumption per person grew by 2% per year. Of the 30 non-overlapping three-year periods from 1929 to the end of his presidency, Trump ranked 12th after the last.

“When I left office, (the economy) changed.”

Trump has a point about inflation. The consumer price index rose 19.9% ​​during Biden’s nearly four-year presidency, leaving incomes slightly behind prices during this period. In the equivalent period under Trump, consumer prices rose 6.7%.

Economists have PolitiFact said that while some Biden policies exacerbated inflation, the main factors were the supply chain’s inability to meet demand during the pandemic and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which drove up global energy prices.

However, some of the biggest negative economic changes occurred in the final year of Trump’s presidency when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. These include an increase in unemployment ratewhich peaked at 14.8% in April 2020 and remained at a high of 6.7% during Trump’s last full month in office.

By comparison, under Biden, the number of employed workers it’s up nearly 16.6 million more than the level at which Trump left office and 6.8 million more than Trump’s pre-pandemic peak. And during Biden’s nearly four years in office, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 18.1 percent.

“Interest rates went from 2% to 10%.

Both numbers are exaggerated.

The the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a low of 2.65% shortly before Trump left office, but rates have fallen amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Before the pandemic hit in early 2020, mortgage rates were around 3.5%. For Trump’s entire pre-pandemic term, the average rate was 4.12%, and the peak rate was 4.94% in November 2018.

Mortgage rates were higher under Biden as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to stem inflation. But mortgage rates never reached 10%.

The peak rate under Biden was 7.79% in October 2023. It has since fallen to 6.54%.