As the US prepares to vote on November 5, there is some anxiety on the part european union on Donald Trump’s potential return to power and how it could affect the bloc’s political and security landscape.

Several EU interlocutors have been proposed should Trump return to the White House – although not all have the same agenda.

Mark Rutte, the new NATO Secretary General, is the consensus choice to address the security challenges and talk to Trump. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish President Andrzej Duda have also positioned themselves as Trump’s allies in Europe.

Mark Rutte: Trump’s pro-European whisperer

Camille Grand, a defense and security policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former deputy secretary general of NATO, said Rutte “is known to have been able to engage the US president and stand firm when needed ” in bilateral interactions and during NATO summits.

In 2018, Rutte rescued the alliance from a tense situation at NATO headquarters when Trump threatened that the United States would go its own way if European governments did not increase defense spending. Rutte gently reminded the president that defense spending is rising and it’s all because of him.

Ian Lesser, who heads the Brussels office of the United States’ German Marshall Fund (GMF), said that if Trump won, Rutte would be able to deliver a “better message on burden-sharing”, being 23 out of 32 of NATO. Member countries, including France and Germany, are expected to meet or exceed the target of spending 2% of their GDP on defense this year. In exchange, Rutte would seek reassurances on aid to Ukraine and continued US presence in NATO.

Not only has Trump threatened to cut off aid to Ukraine and encouraged Russia to do “whatever the hell” it wants with allied nations — he may even pull the US out of NATO, according to his former national security adviser John Bolton. “Rutte will be looking for predictability from Washington, especially in the context of the war with Russia,” Lesser said.

Viktor Orban: ideological ally, but not a “strategic interlocutor”

Zsuzsanna Vegh, an analyst who focuses on Central European countries at GMF, said that Orban’s relationship with Trump was primarily to raise his own position and build his image as an internationally relevant leader.

“Trump’s victory could also encourage Orban to continue down the path of domestic autocratization,” Vegh said, and “further undermine the EU’s credibility as a community of democracies.”

Experts believe that Orban’s anti-immigrant and anti-LGBTQ+ policies have endeared him to Trump’s MAGA support base. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former senior adviser, even referred to the Hungarian leader as “Trump before Trump.”

Because Orban is known to be a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and has opposed EU support for Ukraine, some observers fear he could be whispering the Kremlin’s thoughts into Trump’s ears.

“I doubt that President Putin would need Prime Minister Orban to lobby for him in the White House,” Vegh said. That said, his calls for a ceasefire and negotiations under the current circumstances, which Orban no doubt shares with his American contacts, certainly serve Russia’s interests.

While Orban could be a “similar ally” for Trump, Lesser said, Rutte is a “strategic interlocutor” who speaks for NATO’s security concerns and should have more influence.

Duda and Meloni: Ideological in tone, but security first

There are other potential EU interlocutors who are more ideologically similar to Trump and Orban when it comes to issues like immigration, but strategically in tune with Rutte.

President Andrzej Duda, of Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice party, met with Trump in April and convinced him to let Republicans unlock a $60 billion (€55.5 billion) aid package for Ukraine in the US Congress. “Given Poland’s strategic position on NATO’s eastern flank, maintaining strong relations with the US is considered vital for national security, regardless of political affiliation,” wrote Maciej Tyburski of the Warsaw Institute think tank in an email to DW.

“While it is true that the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party may find ideological alignment with the US Republican leadership, including Trump, the importance of US-Poland relations has historically been recognized across the political spectrum,” Tyburski wrote. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni has also been touted by her colleagues as the perfect EU partner should Trump win, with some members of her far-right Brothers of Italy party having previously met with the former president.

Antonio Giordano, a Brethren of Italy lawmaker who attended the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July, told Financial Times in September that Meloni would be the “natural interlocutor” for Trump if he “wants to understand how to do better with Europe.” While Meloni herself has not endorsed a candidate in the US election, her growing ties to Elon Musk, a businessman close to Trump – including several meetings with the billionaire in 2023 – have been noted by some observers as a sign of favoritism them for the former president. Filippo Simonelli, a junior researcher at the Institute of International Affairs, said Meloni could try to position himself as a link between the US and EU institutions.

“Meloni is (perhaps) trying to be the link between the right of the European political scene and the von der Leyen Commission, which is already looking to the right more than ever before and therefore wants to try to benefit as much as possible. possible from this shifting balance,” he said.

But an ideological alignment with Trump doesn’t mean Meloni has taken his eyes off the threat from Russia. “She’s a staunch Atlanticist,” Lesser said. Meloni has often expressed support for Ukraine and thus found respectability in Brussels, with both Duda and Meloni appreciating the value of NATO and collective defense to Europe.

Trump could galvanize Europe’s far right

Trump’s attempts to deal bilaterally with EU and NATO members, as he often did during his first term, could also weaken those institutions. “The unpredictable nature of Trump’s foreign policy, his transactional focus and his disdain for multilateralism would make it harder for him to adapt to a large bureaucracy with 27 EU member states,” Ero wrote.

“European policymakers fear a second Trump presidency could test their unity.” “Orban, Meloni and Duda are more aligned with Trump, at least on domestic issues, and they will certainly be tempted to take advantage of that connection,” said Grand, the former NATO official. “This fragmentation of the European approach of a potential Trump administration is not helpful for European and NATO interests, as the bilateralization of the security relationship with the US could undermine NATO in the long term.”

Disclaimer: This article first appeared on DW and is published by special syndicate arrangement.