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Miracle or Myth? Assessing Macroeconomic Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence
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Miracle or Myth? Assessing Macroeconomic Productivity Gains from Artificial Intelligence

The paper studies the expected macroeconomic productivity gains from Artificial Intelligence (AI) over a 10-year horizon. It builds a new micro-macro framework, combining existing estimates of micro-level performance gains with evidence on activities’ exposure to AI and likely future adoption rates, based on a multi-sector general equilibrium model with input-output linkages to aggregate the effects . Its main estimates for the aggregate annual increase in total factor productivity due to AI range between 0.25-0.6 percentage points (0.4-0.9 pp for labor productivity). The paper discusses the role of different channels in shaping these macro-level gains and highlights several policy levers to support the growth-enhancing effects of AI.