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Virginia Football vs. SMU Game Preview, Score Prediction
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Virginia Football vs. SMU Game Preview, Score Prediction

virgin and SMU will meet for the first time Saturday at Scott Stadium, finally clashing on the gridiron nearly three years after the two programs were supposed to meet in the Fenway Bowl at the end of the 2021 season. There’s a lot at stake in this one, as the 13th-ranked Mustangs look to keep their ACC record intact and earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game, while the Cavaliers hope to clinch eligibility bowl and send their seniors off with a win in their final game at Scott Stadium.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. SMU with everything you need to know, including game details and notes, an opponent find report, what to watch and a score prediction.

WHO: Virginia Cavaliers (5-5, 3-3 ACC) vs. SMU Mustangs (9-1, 6-0 ACC)

When: Saturday, November 23 at 12pm ET

Where: Scott Stadium (61,500) in Charlottesville, VA

How to watch: ESPN2

How to listen: SiriusXM 381, SXM App 971 | Virginia Sports Radio Network

All Time Series: first meeting

Read Virginia’s injury report for the SMU game here: UVA Football Week 13 Injury Report: Kam Robinson, James Jackson, Corey Thomas

See UVA’s Week 13 schedule for the SMU game below: Virginia football depth chart vs. SMU | Takeaways, Analysis

Virginia Cavaliers Week 13 Depth Chart vs. SMU

Week 13 Depth Chart Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU / Virginia Athletic

2023: 11-3, 8-0 AAC
2024: 9-1, 6-0 ACC

For Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs, their first foray into the Atlantic Coast Conference couldn’t have gone much better, salvaging an 18-15 loss in Week 3 to BYU, a team that is still alive for the Big 12 Championship. SMU comes to Charlottesville on a seven-game winning streak that includes a 66-42 win over TCU, an impressive 34-27 win on the road to No. 22 Louisville, an overtime win over Duke that was a bit of luck as the Blue Devils squandered several chances to win the game late, but the Mustangs followed it up with their most impressive win of the season, a 48 -25 to Pitt. Last week, SMU was tested by Boston College, but eventually pulled away for a 38-28 victory.

SMU has the second-ranked scoring offense in the ACC, averaging just under 40 points per game. The strength of this offense is a very strong running game, the second-best running offense in the ACC (190.9 rushing yards per game and 24 rushing touchdowns), which is led by one of the best running backs of the nation, Brashard Smith, who has 1,026 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns and is averaging over 100 yards per game.

Although SMU relies heavily on its ground game, the Mustangs are more than capable of running the ball. Quarterback Kevin Jennings ranks fourth in the ACC in completion percentage at 65.4 percent and is careful with the football, throwing 15 touchdowns to just six interceptions. He has a plethora of targets in the passing game, as SMU boasts three receivers with at least four touchdowns, four who have at least 20 catches and five who have thrown multiple touchdown passes this season.

SMU’s run defense is even better than the rushing attack, leading the ACC in run defense and allowing less than 100 yards per game on the ground. The Mustangs are quite a bit weaker in pass defense, surrendering nearly 250 passing yards per game, which is 13th in the ACC. SMU makes up for it by forcing turnovers, recording 14 interceptions (second-most in the ACC) and six fumble recoveries.

SMU has 23 sacks as a team this season, 9.5 of which have come from dynamic defensive ends Isaiah Smith and Jahfari Harvey, who will put plenty of pressure on UVA’s offensive tackles. Keep an eye on safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses, who have each posted three interceptions this season.

UVA’s quarterback situation
With Anthony Colandrea’s quarterback play regressing recently (seven interceptions and a touchdown pass in his last three games) and Tony Muskett playing decently in his backup opportunities, Muskett and Colandrea split practices this week. Tony Elliott said Tuesday that he’s still leaning toward Colandrea keeping his starting job, but even if that’s the case, it’ll be interesting to see if Elliott has Colandrea on a short leash. Muskett has yet to enter a game that wasn’t already completely out of reach. Virginia is desperate to get its sixth win, so it should be all hands on deck.

Turnover margin and red zone efficiency
Virginia is -4 in the turnover margin department this season, and ball security has been a particular problem recently. SMU, meanwhile, has forced 20 turnovers this season. The Mustangs are also third in the ACC in both red zone and red zone offense, while the Cavaliers have struggled with red zone efficiency all season. An upset win for UVA will likely require the Hoos to win the rebounding battle and execute at a high level in the red zone on both sides of the ball.

Defend home turf
Virginia is 2-3 at home this season, with those wins coming against Richmond and Boston College. The Cavaliers must be proud to protect their home court and send their seniors out on top in their final home games. Much has been made of UVA’s participation at home this season. In their last opportunity to see Virginia football play at home this season, we look for the UVA faithful to show up at Scott Stadium and give the Hoos a real home-field advantage.

Virginia is capable of hanging with SMU and even beating them if the Cavaliers bring their A-game. But UVA hasn’t been able to bring that A-game consistently this season or even all four quarters of play, and that’s likely going to be needed to slow down the SMU. I see the Pony Express continuing to roll as the Mustangs pick up their eighth straight win, remain undefeated in conference play and secure a berth in the ACC Championship Game.

Predicted score: SMU 31, Virginia 23

UVA Football: Players to Watch in Virginia vs. SMU

Stat comparison: How Virginia football stacks up against SMU on paper

Tony Elliott updates the Virginia Football Quarterback situation

UVA Football Week 13 Injury Report: Kam Robinson, James Jackson, Corey Thomas

Virginia football depth chart vs. SMU | Takeaways, Analysis