Donald Trump began his term as president-elect by devoting his first week to assembling his team. By the beginning of the second week, he announced on Truth Social his intention to declare a national emergency for border security. His plan includes suggestions that he could send in the National Guard to carry out a mass deportation of undocumented migrants — a bold move that underscores his administration’s priorities. However, details remain unclear as to how this colossal undertaking will actually be managed.

“Trumpworld,” as many call it, promises to be a land cleansed of the 11 million undocumented immigrants. “America First” policies will be the mantra of this world. It will be a world where the work to Make America Great Again (MAGA) begins, and of course a world where a revival of hard-line conservative values ​​has been long overdue. The MAGA campaign, as envisioned by Trumpworld and its far-right champions, is committed to deporting all undocumented immigrants. It must also concern Indians, given that about 7,25,000 of the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants in the US are from India, according to the Pew Research Center. This makes them the third largest group after Mexico and El Salvador.

American Indians: A Tale of Extremes

Indian immigrants to the US are often celebrated for contributing to the success of Silicon Valley, but the quiet contributions of thousands of undocumented Indians are rarely mentioned – largely because they live in the country illegally. They represent almost 6% of all undocumented migrants in the country. Together, their population is 2.71 million. The total number of legal and illegal Indian immigrants is second only to Mexico (4.5 million). Now that Trump is back in the White House, uncertainty looms for many of these Indian immigrants, most of whom are young and established in their jobs.

Can Bluster turn into politics?

Tom Homan will be in charge of America’s borders after Trump is inaugurated in January. A former police officer and former director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal agency responsible for enforcing US immigration laws, Homan is known for his tough rhetoric. At this year’s Republican National Convention, he didn’t mince words, warning undocumented immigrants, “You better start packing now.”

In addition to naming Homan as border czar, Trump also nominated Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy. Both positions reinforce his campaign promise to be extremely tough on immigration and deport all illegal immigrants. Homan will oversee US borders and deportations, among other things, while Miller, known for his role in shaping Trump’s stance on immigration during his first term, will focus on implementing the administration’s mass deportation promises . It was announced that South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem will serve as Secretary of Homeland Security, coordinating with Homan and Miller on border security initiatives.

However, the obstacles to actually executing Trump’s grand plan are staggering. The logistics of scaling up the system are as daunting as the rhetoric is bold.

Tracing the Origins

In order to deport a person without documents or a passport, border agencies must first determine beyond doubt what country a potential deportee is from. Let me draw a parallel here. India faces a similar problem with many Nigerian immigrants. An exasperated Javed Ahmed, ex-Mumbai cop and Maharashtra police chief, once told me that it was almost impossible to deport the remaining Nigerians to their country. Why? Because once in India, they would destroy their passports and all other national identification documents so that the authorities could not establish their Nigerian background. If their origins are not established, the Nigerian government has the right to refuse to accept them.

So if the US government wants to send an undocumented Indian back to India, it won’t be easy. The US has repatriation agreements with Mexico and some Central American countries, but those agreements focus primarily on recent border crossers, not long-term undocumented immigrants. For those who have lived in the US for 10 years or more, removal procedures become complex. Documentation, citizenship verification and obtaining travel documents can be difficult. Also, removal of long-term residents can separate families, and returnees may face difficulties reintegrating into their home countries. These difficulties have been recognized even by the US government.

Labor shortage

Another challenge is the lack of manpower. Immigration enforcement agencies are stretched thin, which partly explains why, even during Trump’s first term, the average annual deportation rate was 3,50,000 — a figure that pales in comparison to the years Obama, which saw 4,32,000 deportations in a single year. Ironically, it was Obama who appointed Tom Homan to oversee these deportations.

Trump supporters have floated the idea of ​​enlisting the National Guard, one of the oldest elements of the US armed forces, to solve the labor crisis, but experts such as Jean Lantz Reisz of the Gould School of Law warn that this could cause legal challenges. The Supreme Court has made it clear that the president cannot unilaterally deploy the military to enforce immigration law. Attempts to use the Insurrection Act of 1807, a federal law that authorizes the president to deploy the military to quell domestic insurrections when state authorities request assistance or national security is threatened, would likely hit the same legal wall.

Legal deadlock

The total lack of judicial and detention capacity, as immigration experts have pointed out, is also a challenge. With a staggering 3.7 million pending immigration cases (Syracuse University data), the system is already breaking down. Meanwhile, ICE currently detains 37,000 people in total, far from enough to deal with Trump’s mass deportation plans. Expanding this capacity won’t come cheap, and taxpayers will almost certainly be handed the bill.

Budget constraints

It is claimed that removing all 11 million unauthorized immigrants will cost nearly $300 billion. However, Trump has already said cost is not an issue. But cost is not the only consideration. According to researchers, nearly one million of the 11 million undocumented immigrants run their own businesses and pay $100 billion in taxes. In states like California and Texas, in sectors like agriculture, infrastructure and hospitality, hiring undocumented workers is crucial. Reisz offers a stark reality check: “You could put 11 million people in removal proceedings, but it would take years to actually deport them from the US.” Without significant legislative changes — and congressional action to back them up — Reisz sees mass deportations as little more than a pipe dream.

The history of prejudice

The USA, often called the “nation of immigrants”, was built on several waves of immigration in the early centuries, mostly from Europe. Just to give some perspective, while European colonists were busy driving the indigenous people off their land and trying to build homes in the New World in the 17th century, the Mughal and Ottoman empires were at their height – exuding prosperity, art refined. and stunning architecture. After several centuries of largely white European migration, the US developed into a New World, eventually evolving into a world power in the 20th century.

Anti-immigration sentiment began to grow in the late 19th and early 20th centuries as the composition of the immigrant population changed. Earlier immigrants, mainly from Northern and Western Europe, were openly welcomed, but the influx of Africans, Chinese and others fueled xenophobia and nativism. Racial prejudice was actually codified into law by the US. The Immigration Act of 1917, for example, created a “no-go zone” excluding immigrants from most of Asia. In 1924, the Johnson-Reed Act further entrenched discrimination by establishing quotas based on origin, favoring Northern and Western Europeans and excluding Asians altogether. White Europeans were usually seen as more desirable and easily obtained citizenship. But black, Asian, and Latino immigrants faced exclusion, segregation, and legal barriers. For example, the Naturalization Act of 1790 limited citizenship to “free white persons”—a restriction that wasn’t lifted, hold your breath, until the mid-20th century. Anti-immigrant sentiment was not just about numbers, but reflected deep-seated anxieties about race, culture and the fear of being overwhelmed.

Achievable goals

Even with the best of intentions and a commitment to continued talks, Trump’s new immigration team won’t find it easy to beat Obama’s peak of 4,32,000 deportations a year. Even if they manage the ambitious half a million annually—assuming there are no legal or logistical roadblocks—it would still take 22 years to eliminate the current backlog of undocumented immigrants. Experts, however, believe Trump is more likely to focus on deporting recent arrivals, whose records are easier to track.

However, with Trump legally barred from seeking re-election in 2028, the big question looms: Who will be held accountable if this bold promise doesn’t stick?

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a senior Indian journalist based in London with three decades of experience in Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author