One of the great things about sports is the unpredictability of future events.

Great new heroes can rise from clashes between bitter rivals to cement themselves as the names of tomorrow, just as the older generation can slowly fade into oblivion from one season to the next.

The very fact that we simply don’t quite know what to expect is why we religiously tune in to watch the ins and outs of a league 24/7.

Such an element as scoring efficiency can also be unpredictable and can dramatically alter the course of events, leaning both to our pleasure and to our dismay as we wait to see which way you lean.

Five players and one team stand out this year as deviating from their usual paths. Given that it’s still early in the season, it’s time to take a look at them and ponder the overarching question: is there anything?

James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers

’24-25: 37.9 FG%, 31.0 3FG%, 54.1 TS%
’23-24: 42.8 FG%, 38.1 3FG%, 61.2 TS%

The former MVP has seen his efficiency dip, quite substantially, in the early parts of this season, and the problem is just about everywhere.

The 6-foot-5 Harden has always been built like a tank, using raw power to get to the rim while converting nearly 64 percent of his shots within three feet throughout his career.

That’s down to 53.3 percent this year, meaning he’s essentially making half his shots near the basket — a troubling decline for a player who used to practically live there to draw fouls and finish shots over taller opponents .

Harden is 35 years old now, and his legs have plenty of minutes on them. With both the regular season and playoffs totaling over 43,500 minutes collectively, it’s no surprise that Harden is feeling the sting of a body that can no longer take the punishment.

That’s not to say the All-Star guard isn’t productive. Despite his shooting issues, he’s still averaging 20.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game, numbers that could easily carry him over the season. But the lack of efficiency and athletic pop are real concerns.

is it something

Yes and no. Harden’s athletic decline will cost him some efficiency points around the rim, but he’s smart enough to find ways to compensate. The 3-point shot is likely to return, where he could lean more and thus get back on track. But his game has changed, and the sooner we accept that, the better.

Nikola Vučević, Chicago Bulls

’24-25: 59.3 FG%, 44.6 3FG%, 67.9 TS%
’23-24: 48.4% FG, 29.4% 3FG, 54.0% TS

No Bulls fan alive will call the acquisition of Vučević in 2021 a win. The Bulls ended up giving up Wendell Carter Jr. as well as the rights to Franz Wagner and Jett Howard.

What they got instead was an inconsistent center who could never figure out his role despite his strengths being mostly on the offensive side of the ball.

This season, Vučević is playing All-Star caliber basketball, hitting everything from everywhere, including a nearly 13 percentage point increase in conversion rate around the basket.

Some might argue that the floor has opened up due to DeMar DeRozan’s departure, allowing the Montenegrin more room to operate. There might be some truth to that logic, though it hardly explains his sudden explosion as a 3-point shooter.

The Bulls should hope a number of teams buy Vučević’s new numbers so they can pivot away from him in a trade and get something back that could help with a future rebuild, which has yet to happen .

is it something

Not. Vučević will end up having a better season than last because of his great start, but unless he makes a drastic change at age 34 to turn into the center version of Kevin Durant, his numbers are completely unsustainable. Make the most of this situation, Chicago.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Orlando Magic

’24-25: 33.7 FG%, 23.4 3FG%, 47.0 TS%
’23-24: 46 FG%, 40.6 3FG%, 60.2 TS%

The world went absolutely nuts when the Denver Nuggets failed to retain their starting shooting guard, leading to a cascade of criticism of their internal process.

Orlando, meanwhile, was celebrated for signing the two-way wing to $66 million over three years.

As things stand now, with Denver handing Christian Braun the spot formerly occupied by Caldwell-Pope and Braun thriving in that role, it appears that things have changed.

Caldwell-Pope is no longer playing with the best playmaker in the NBA in Nikola Jokić and is playing on a team that still needs a reliable point guard to get the offense going. That explains it some of this, but not all.

The truth is that Caldwell-Pope is in an epic shooting slump, making it nearly impossible to gauge his true capabilities due to the aforementioned factors.

is it something

Yes. Caldwell-Pope benefited immensely from playing with Jokić, who passed the ball to him 12.3 times per game last year, providing a reliable foundation for what to expect whenever he took the floor. That predictable presence is gone now and it will hurt his game. That’s not to say he won’t improve as the season goes on — but his elite shooting isn’t likely to return this year.

Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves

’24-25: 50.7 FG%, 38.2 3FG%, 62.4 TS%
’23-24: 47.2 FG%, 31.1 3FG%, 56.9 TS%

If you think the difference in Randle’s efficiency is minimal, you’re not necessarily wrong.

However, this comes down to expectations. Randle joins a frontcourt of Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, meaning the gap won’t be a major presence.

But Randle connected on plenty of outside shots (including a game-winning 3-pointer on Sunday), converted at a higher rate near the rim and generally looked much better at home in Minnesota’s offense than expected.

That’s not to say it was a perfect fit, as Wolves are playing a level or two below last year. But Randle somehow found success in a confusing roster construction, playing off the attention paid to Anthony Edwards and leaning into the role of a secondary scorer. Apparently that worked for him.

is it something

Quite strange, yes. Randle seems to be getting an on and off year from his efficiency numbers, and this season seems to have started. He has found a niche in the attacking structure and has been given the go-ahead to create more, leading to an increase in confidence and shots. Imagine!

Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City Thunder

’24-25: 30.9 FG%, 21.9 3FG%, 39.6 TS%
’23-24: 46.8 FG%, 40.8 3FG%, 61.3 TS%

Yes, yes. Caruso is a defensive connector and not a high-scoring shooter, so why are we looking at his specific efficiency?

Well, for starters, because the disparity is huge and also because of the expectations of being added to a loaded Thunder team where open shots would be easy to find, all in the flow of the offense.

All of this has come to fruition, and Caruso is seemingly too open, with 43.6% of his shots considered “wide open”, meaning the nearest defender is more than 6 meters away. On those shots, Caruso converts just 20.8%, an unfathomably low number.

This is coming off the best shooting season of his career, turning him into a much more dangerous weapon.

Fortunately, his role is low-volume, and the Thunder can produce effective offense without him. It’s not a big deal — at least not until he starts hitting those same shots in the playoffs.

is it something

Despite the horrendous percentages…not yet. Caruso made 55 shots on the season, 32 of which were 3-pointers. The sample size is so small that a week of consistent shooting could swing the percentages back in his favor. If by mid-January they’re still struggling to this extent, then it’s time to worry.

Sacramento Kings

’24-25: 33.1 3FG%, 24.6 assists, 34.4 3PA
’23-24: 36.6 3FG%, 28.3 assists, 39.3 3PA

Remember the space left by Vučević due to the departure of DeMar DeRozan? Well, the kings could have taken care of that.

DeRozan has been brilliant for Sacramento, but remains an absolute space-eater and isolation scorer who takes over the offense. This is great when converting at a high rate, drawing fouls, and setting up teammates.

But it comes at the cost of moving the ball less. The Kings, who have both De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis to set people up, now rank 22nd in the league in assists when they should have gone the other way.

Their 3-point shooting is also down. They ranked third last season in 3-point attempts, but 23rd this season in that department while barely shooting 31 percent.

It’s not all on DeRozan, of course. The Kings have embraced the mid-range shot and are actively looking for it more than they did last year. Will this cost him wins at the end of the season? It depends on how many close games DeRozan and Fox release, but otherwise the answer should be yes.

Sacramento has had an explosive offensive identity for the past few seasons and is looking to keep it going by adding volume through DeRozan. Having three scorers who can all get you 25 points whenever needed is indeed a luxury, but is it a luxury the Kings can afford if it comes at the expense of the unpredictability of their offense?

is it something

There is a world where this works, as long as DeRozan is able to taper off as the season progresses, mostly to allow Keegan Murray’s skills as a shooter to excel. If not, this might be something and that something might not be well received by Kings fans.