The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys face off to close out Week 11 of Monday Night Football, and these teams are in very different places at this point in the season.

Houston is in first place in the AFC South and is still in the hunt for a playoff spot, while Dallas has just three wins and has lost four straight games. Additionally, Dak Prescott finished the season, putting Dallas’ season on life support.

Oddsmakers favored Houston by seven points on the road, but the Texans lost in primetime in Week 10 against the Detroit Lions.

Can CJ Stroud and company bounce back on Monday night?

The SI Betting team has a few games for this game, which we’ve organized into one place for punters ahead of this stand-alone matchup.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Texans -7 (-115) vs. Dallas Cowboys – Iain MacMillan

SI Betting’s NFL betting expert Iain MacMillan puts the points with the Texans this week and shared why in Road to 272 – where to bet on every NFL game – earlier this week:

I’d like to know why anyone would bet on the Cowboys in this situation other than trying to make this game. They now rank 29th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.9) and with Dak Prescott out, they gained a pitiful 2.6 yards per play against the Eagles last week. They can’t play offense, they can’t play defense, and their head coach has lost his locker room.

The Texans’ defense is underrated, ranking eighth in opponent EPA per game and third in opponent success rate. There have been some concerns about their offense, but if Nico Collins can return to their lineup, he will give them a much-needed boost.

Nico Collins Over 71.5 receiving yards (-120) – Peter Dewey

Nico Collins is preparing to return to the lineup from a hamstring injury and could be undervalued in the prop market — especially with the Texans already depleted at the receiver position.

Prior to his injury, Collins was averaging over 100 receiving yards per game and dishing out 71.5 receiving yards per game.

With Stefon Diggs (torn ACL) out for the season, Collins should step into a massive role from here on out for Houston.

Dallas is a beatable defense this season, allowing the second-most attempts in net passing yards in the 2024 campaign.

Collins should return to his regular role after sitting out Week 10, and I expect him to surpass that yardage mark for the sixth time in as many games.

Houston Texans-Dallas Cowboys UNDER 42 (-115) – Peter Dewey

Earlier this week, We’ve shared the best NFL bets why I think SUB is the play on Monday Night Football:

Do we really think Cooper Rush is going to turn things around for Dallas after completing just 13 of 23 passes for 45 yards in Week 11?

Jerry Jones expressed his confidence in the backup quarterback this week, but I’m far from sold against a tough Houston defense.

Houston has been the best UNDER team in the NFL this season and ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA/Play on that side of the ball.

While the Texans could move the ball against a Dallas defense that gave up the fifth-most points in the NFL, Stroud hasn’t looked as good as a rookie this season.

The return of Nico Collins can boost Houston’s offense, but will it do enough to put up a combined 42 points?

Remember, Dallas scored just six points against the Eagles (15th in EPA/Defensive Play) in Week 10, and the Rush was set up by a turnover inside the five-yard line at one point in the game.

I don’t think we can trust this Dallas offense to score enough to surpass that total, and Houston might be content to just run the ball — Dallas is allowing 4.7 yards per carry — and chew up the clock if they get up early .

Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown (+155) – Iain MacMillan

While Dallas’ offense was abysmal in Week 10, MacMillan likes to start back to find the end zone this week:

The Cowboys have officially named Rico Dowdle as their primary quarterback this season. That means he should get plenty of carries on Monday night as Dallas will try to run the ball and hopefully won’t have to rely on Cooper Rush’s arm to keep this game within reach.

It’s rare to get a team’s starting runner at such a long odds, so it seems like a no-brainer bet in this situation.

Quotations are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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