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Where could the Barclays share price go in the next 12 months? Here are the latest forecasts
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Where could the Barclays share price go in the next 12 months? Here are the latest forecasts

Where could the Barclays share price go in the next 12 months? Here are the latest forecasts

Image source: Getty Images

The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share price has been firing on all cylinders this year. Bank shares are up nearly 70% since January as management follows through on its promises. But with so much growth already under its belt, can the share price continue to climb even higher? Here are the latest predictions from City analysts.

Stock price forecast

After its latest third-quarter results, the market consensus around Britain’s second-largest bank remains bullish. Of the 18 institutional analysts following the business, only four issued a Hold recommendation, with the rest placing it in either the Outperform or Buy Buy categories. And this strong sentiment is also reflected in the stock price forecast for 2025.

Opinion 12-month share price Potential Win/Loss
Optimistic 345p +33.5%
Average 302.5 p +17.0%
Pessimistic 240p -7.2%

So what drives this overly positive sentiment? In the bank’s interim results earlier this year, management successfully delivered on its promises of higher net interest income and return on equity (RoTE). Flash forward to the group’s third quarter results and it was more of the same.

Further progress in cost-cutting helped boost pre-tax profits well ahead of expectations to £2.2bn from £1.9bn year-on-year. But the most interesting thing is that RoTE reached 12.3%. This is well ahead of management’s 10% target for the year. And if bosses can maintain this capital efficiency going forward, it will have achieved its 12% RoTE target by 2026, two years early.

What to expect now

With interest rates steadily cut by the Bank of England, the net interest margin is already under pressure. However, another growth lever that management has already started to pull is volume growth. The bank recently completed the acquisition of Tesco Bank, adding £8.4bn loan book in the form of credit card and personal loan receivables, along with £6.8 billion in customer deposits.

With just over a month left in Barclay’s financial year, shareholders will likely have to wait until 2025 before they can determine the full impact of this deal. It does, however, help Barclays reach its total revenue target of £30 billion by 2026.

Unfortunately, some short-term challenges could disrupt this journey. The most troubling of these is the ongoing investigation into undisclosed auto finance commissions. The rival bank Lloyds appears to have the greatest exposure to a negative outcome. But Barclays is far from immune to the potential fallout. And the stock could subsequently suffer a significant drop if earnings end up being hit by legal sanctions.

The bottom line

Even after the rise, Barclays’ current share price places the firm at one price-earnings ratio from 9.3. That’s a slight premium to the average of 7.5 at which its biggest peers currently trade. However, given the bank’s track record, a high multiple can be justified. That said, I am waiting to see the outcome of the FCA investigation before I consider adding any of the shares to my portfolio. If wrongdoing is discovered, the entire banking sector could take a significant hit, and that could create a more attractive entry point for me.