(Bloomberg) — France’s budget is moving through volatile parliamentary debates toward a precipice in December, when far-right leader Marine Le Pen can let the bill become law or spark chaos by toppling the government with a no-confidence vote.

The initial version of a budget that was designed to plug widening holes in public finances and reassure investors is undergoing a succession of votes and thousands of amendments as it winds its way between parliamentary committees and the floors of the National Assembly and Senate until mid december .

Complexities are mounting as Prime Minister Michel Barnier maneuvers without a majority in the lower house and amid divisions that reach even within his center-right coalition government.

Because France’s opposition parties traditionally vote against the final version of the government funding bill, Barnier said he would likely have to rely on a constitutional provision known as 49.3 to pass the budget without subjecting it to parliamentary vote.

“When I see what happened in the National Assembly, I find it difficult to do otherwise at the end of the discussion,” the French prime minister said in an interview with Ouest-France newspaper on Thursday.

But the potential fallout of such a move – sometimes criticized as undemocratic – will be determined by Le Pen. If she finds Barnier’s final version unacceptable, her party could support a no-confidence motion by left-wing MPs to bring down the government.

Such an outcome would be catastrophic for the country’s efforts to rebuild credibility with investors who no longer trust France, after budget deficits fell and elections returned a weak minority government. A selloff in the country’s bonds since President Emmanuel Macron triggered elections in June has already pushed the premium on its 10-year debt, compared with Germany, to about 76 basis points from less than 50.

To restore calm and bring the deficit to 5 percent of economic output from 6.1 percent, the government promised the 2025 budget would deliver 60 billion euros ($63.3 billion) in savings from spending cuts and increases of taxes concentrated on the richest individuals and the largest companies.

Le Pen and her National Rally party have exerted their power over whether Barnier succeeds or fails, reiterating threats to support no-confidence motions proposed by other groups. But she also indicated that the far-right does not want to be an agent of chaos as it seeks to build a reputation for accountability ahead of upcoming elections, following significant gains in European and legislative elections earlier this year. .

A vote to topple the government at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty and when the next parliamentary election cannot be held until the summer of 2025 would be a risky bet for Le Pen. For now, she and her lieutenants maintain suspense.

“We don’t mind voting on a motion of censure proposed by others, we will keep the possibility,” said Sebastien Chenu, vice-president of the National Rally, on TF1 on Friday. “It’s a budget that takes from the pockets of the French and makes zero savings, so don’t count on us to give them a hand.”

The budget bluff revolves around Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which can be invoked by a prime minister to pass a bill without a vote. Last year, former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne used 49.3 several times while the budget and social security bill were passed between the National Assembly and the senate.

Barnier, however, has the support of far fewer MPs, making it more risky to trigger more no-confidence votes on funding bills, and has said he wants to reflect the input of opposition parties as much as possible.

The division within the own coalition also makes the final result of the budget uncertain. To appease MPs loyal to Macron, the government has already said it will make changes to limit planned increases in taxes paid by employers. It also plans changes to ease measures affecting pensioners, and the budget ministry has indicated it is open to extending temporary tax increases for the wealthiest.

“Barnier will also have to satisfy his own troops and it’s happening in all kinds of directions,” said Francois Ecalle, president of public finance think tank FIPECO. “It will probably use 49.3, but it’s not clear what kind of budget.”

After the senate debate that is due to start on Monday and a possible attempt to reconcile the different versions at a parliamentary committee of seven senators and seven MPs, the bill will return to the National Assembly in early December. To allow time for the Constitutional Council’s review and promulgation of the law before early 2025, parliament must have passed the bill by mid-December.

If the budget is rejected at that stage — by a vote or a successful motion of no confidence — special bills are possible to get fast-track authorization for the government to continue collecting taxes in 2025 and spend the minimum necessary to keep the state running . month by month, according to public law professor Anne-Charlène Bezzina. But that would amount to a harsh form of austerity for which no one is prepared to take responsibility.

“There is too much disorganization for an affirmative vote on this budget and to avoid the country falling within the monthly spending limits, Article 49.3 becomes an emergency weapon for France to continue functioning on January 1,” she said.

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