A by-election was held in South Australia, organized by the Liberals, on Saturday state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor won Black by a margin of 60.6–39.4 over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing from Labor at the 2022 state election. The primary vote was 46 .5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberal (up 17.8%), 15.6% Greens (up 3.8%) and 5.6% Australian Families (new).

SA does not allow pre-vote and mail-in ballots to be counted on election night, so the count is only up to 42% of registered voters. ABC election analyst Antony Green expects the big number of pre-poll and postal votes to reduce Labour’s lead, but Labor will still win easily. These votes will be counted from Monday.

It is the second time the SA Labor government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election. In March, Labor won Dunstan, the seat of former SA Liberal premier Steven Marshall. This was the first time in a century that an SA government had won from the opposition in a by-election.

This by-election followed the resignation of former Liberal leader David Speirs, who became leader after the 2022 election. SA Labs have now won two seats from former Liberal leaders.

I don’t think this result is due to a backlash against the election of Donald Trump as US President latest federal polls were common for Labor.

There has been only one poll since the 2022 SA state election of voting intentions. That poll, taken in Augustgave Labor a 60–40 lead. A very popular Labor government is the most likely explanation for this by-election result.

Australian economic data

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said wages rose 0.8 per cent. September quarterthe same as in the June quarter, but 12-month wage growth fell to 3.5% from 4.1%. With general inflation up 0.2% in the September quarter and 2.8% over the past 12 months, real wages (adjusted for inflation) rose 0.6% in the September quarter and 0.7% over the past 12 months .

Real salaries have increased over the past four quarters, but fell for the two years to September 2023, with the decline peaking in December 2022 at more than a 4% drop in real wages.

ABS said Unemployment rate in October it was unchanged from September at 4.1%, with 15,900 jobs added. The employment rate (the percentage of eligible Australians who are employed) remained at 64.4%, an equal record level.

Federal Morgan poll: Coalition maintains narrow lead

A national Morgan surveyconducted between November 4-10 from a sample of 1,665, gave the Coalition a 50.5-49.5 lead, a 0.5 point gain for Labor from the October 28 to November 3 Morgan poll.

The primary vote was 37.5% Coalition (down 0.5), 30.5% Labor (constant), 12.5% ​​Greens (down 1.5), 6.5% One Nation (up by 0.5), 8.5% independent (up by one) and 4.5% in other (up by 0.5) .

The headline figure uses respondents’ preferences. By 2022, the election streams, Labor led by an unchanged 51-49.

Solve additional questions

Support for the Greens fell by one to 11% in November’s national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, the lowest level since February. Newspoll and Morgan also showed a drop for the Greens.

Of the leader of the Greens, Adam Bandt net sympathy it was -15 in Resolve, tied with October for the lowest net favorability since February. The Greens’ net advantage was -19, the worst since August.

The net preference of other politicians and parties was -40 for Lidia Thorpe, -23 for Pauline Hanson, -15 for Bob Katter, -10 for Albanese, -4 for Labour, -1 for Dutton and +7 for the Liberals.

On flight upgrade36% said MPs should get upgrades for work but not for personal flights, 25% wanted no upgrades and 23% wanted them always allowed. By 45-39, voters believed lawmakers should continue to accept airline lounge memberships as long as they declare it.

Regarding Albanians’ acceptance of benefits, 35% said they should not have accepted them for personal flights, but it is OK for official travel, 30% said it was OK to accept them and 24% said no should have accepted neither work nor work benefits. personal flights.

WA State and Federal Surveys

The Western Australian state election will be held in March 2025 The Bludger Survey reported on 13 November, a DemosAU poll, conducted between 30 October and 4 November, from a sample of 948, gave Labor a 56–44 lead.

The primary vote was 41% Labour, 34% Liberal, 4% National, 12% Green and 9% for all others. Labor incumbent Roger Cook had a 42–29 lead over the Liberals’ Libby Mettam as the preferred premier.

The federal version of this poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead in WA, a 3% swing from the Coalition from the 2022 federal election. The primary vote was 38% Coalition, 34% Labour, 14% Greens, 6% One Nation and 8% for all others. Albanese led Dutton as the preferred prime minister by 40-33. A federal WA Redbridge poll gave Labor a 54.5–45.5 lead.

Victorian Resolve poll: Pesutto now prefers PM

A Victorian state Take the survey for The Age, conducted with federal Resolve polls in October and November from a sample of more than 1,000, gave the Coalition 38% of the primary vote (up one from September), Labor 28% (up one), the Greens 13% (down). one), independents 14% (down one) and others 7% (constant).

Resolve doesn’t usually give a two-part figure, but The Poll Bludger estimated a coalition led by 50.5–49.5. Liberal leader John Pesutto led Labor incumbent Jacinta Allan as premier favorite by 30–29, a reversal of Allan’s 30–29 lead in September. It is the first time that Pesutto leads this measure.

By 42–37, voters supported the building of more high-density housing near train and tram stations in their area.

Late US election count

I continue to follow the United States election, counting late The Poll Bludger. Republicans have a 52–47 lead over Democrats called Senate racesand is likely to win the final uncalled contest in Pennsylvania.

In House of RepresentativesRepublicans hold a 218–212 lead in called races with five uncalled. I expect Republicans to win two of the uncalled races, two Democrats and one still undecided.