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    • As 4 Iowa races head for recounts, study shows how often results flip
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    As 4 Iowa races head for recounts, study shows how often results flip

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    US Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces a recount for the second time in three campaign cycles after Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan called for a recount in the race for Southeast Iowa’s 1st Congressional District.

    It is one of four Iowa races up for recounts in the 2024 general election.

    Miller-Meeks earned the nickname “Landslide” for her victory by just six votes in 2020 after surviving a recount against Democrat Rita Hart. But the GOP incumbent is confident with a much larger lead this time, of about 800 votes, that the results will hold.

    Miller-Meeks’ campaign called the account a “delay tactic to thwart the will of the people,” suggesting it was mathematically impossible to reverse her current leadership.

    So how often do stories turn races around? Here’s what I found:

    What is the probability that the recount will change the outcome of the 1st congressional district race?

    When Miller-Meeks survived a recount earlier in 2020, she faced Hart in what was then the 2nd Congressional District before it was redrawn. It spanned much of the same geographic area as the current District 1.

    Miller-Meeks’ initial lead of 47 votes was reduced to just six votes out of nearly 400,000 votes cast after a recount at the district level. This was the closest margin of any federal election in the country in 2020.

    A analysis of reports at the state level from 2000 to 2023, which was recently released by FairVote, a nonpartisan advocacy group promoting voting reform, found that it is extremely rare for a recount to reverse the outcome of a race.

    The last statewide recount to reverse the results was the 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota.

    The analysis found just three reversals, or one in every 2,310 statewide elections. All occurred when the initial margin was less than 0.06% of all votes cast for the top two candidates, which is a smaller margin than where the District 1 race is.

    “A recount will not materially change the outcome of this race because the congressman’s lead is mathematically impossible to overcome,” the campaign said. “Mariannette was humbled to win the support of the majority of voters, and we remain confident that Mariannette Miller-Meeks has been re-elected to a third term.”

    How close are the Iowa races?

    Three other races are officially headed for a recount. Each is separated by a few dozen votes.

    • Senate District 14: Democratic Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott leads Republican challenger Mark Hanson by 24 votes. Hanson announced Friday that he would ask for a recount. The district covers Waukee, Adel, Van Meter and parts of Clive and West Des Moines in Dallas County.
    • Senate District 20: Republican challenger Mike Pike leads incumbent Democratic Sen. Nate Boulton by 44 votes. The district includes east Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill and southwest Ankeny.
    • House District 98: Incumbent Democrat Monica Kurth leads Republican Nathan Ramker by 45 votes. The district includes Davenport.

    Candidates have until 5pm on November 18 to request a recount.

    (This story has been updated to accurately reflect the most current information.)

    Politics editor Mike Trautmann contributed to this story.

    Marissa Payne covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. Reach her by email at [email protected]. Follow X, formerly known as Twitter, at @marissajpayne.

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