However, the situation in the countries got worse, not better, even before Wagner’s major difficulties this year.

In the three countries, deaths from political violence increased by 38 percent in 2023, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), which tracks the conflict. Civilian deaths increased by almost a fifth.

Wagner’s abuse of the population has also become a powerful rallying cry and recruiting tool for the jihadists fighting against them.

In the worst incident, the United Nations found “strong indications” that in March 2022, Malian troops and “foreign military personnel” killed or summarily executed more than 500 people in the village of Moura in Mali’s Mopti region.

After the massacre near the Algerian border, there were rumors that Wagner told Mali that he wanted to scale back more ambitious, exposed operations in remote areas.

“Strong Player”

“While Russia remains a strong player in parts of Africa, recent events in the Sahel states have shown that Russian forces are deeply overstretched and losing credibility,” says Mr Brown.

Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London, wrote earlier this month: “There may be an element of schadenfreude about Russia failing a major play against Western interests and being caught in a misery, from which he can only get out. himself with loss of face.”

But he warned that failure risked turning the Sahel into a hotbed of extremist violence that could cause problems further afield in West Africa.

Also, while the West may relish Moscow’s difficulties, Europe and America are not well placed to capitalize on them.

Relations between the Sahel and France are still fractured, says Mr Laessing.

“No one wants them back and also other European countries are reluctant to do combative things,” he said.

Donald Trump inherits a shrinking US diplomatic footprint in Africa with understaffed embassies. The continent is not considered to be high on the new president’s agenda.

Turkey increases influence

However, the number of nations that gathered in Sudan’s agonizing civil war it shows that there is no shortage of middle powers vying for influence in the region that could instead step forward.

Turkey, for example, could be in pole position after spending years increasing its influence and trade in Africa

Ankara has signed military cooperation agreements with more than 25 African countries, supplying Turkish-made weapons, including drones, helicopters, training planes and armored vehicles.

Its hostile stance towards the West imposed sanctions on the military regimes of NigeriaBurkina Faso and Mali his connections with these nations also helped.

“Turkey’s biggest advantage is its non-colonial past,” a diplomatic source told Reuters last month. “When anti-imperialist leaders look for new partners, they think of us first.”