Since Donald Trump made history in US politics by sweeping across the political spectrum, gathering Electoral College votes well in advance along with popular votes and securing control of the Senate and Congress, international challenges and the two wars in the European and Middle Eastern contexts have took place. took center stage as he often made lofty declarations to end them immediately – particularly the Russia-Ukraine war.

Both have real and historically perceived injustices as justification for conflicts of extraordinary complexity and longevity. Therefore, President Trump’s claims also counter the miscalculations and shortcomings of his US predecessor. At the same time, almost everyone agrees, and Trump realizes that the key to both wars lies in Washington, DC. However, given its own predilections for competitors, each war will have a different type of endgame or devolve into a different conflagration.

This is also evident in the selection of key members of his cabinet, whose beliefs and prejudices have a telling impact on the outcome of these wars. However, we must admit that Trump may be unconventional and a bully, but he is not a warmonger, although he considers China as his main strategic adversary and Iran as the cause of all evil in the Middle East. However, he often said that none of these wars would have happened if he had been president. He claimed that “I will not start a war. I will stop the wars”. He also said that he would stop the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours. He also warned and encouraged Benjamin Netanyahu, who has already spoken three times with the president-elect, that the killings in Gaza must stop and that the war must end before he re-enters the White House.

The Russia-Ukraine war

Trump believes that the Eurasian war has driven Moscow into the arms of Beijing, and he may try to drive a wedge between Russia and China by ending the conflict and thereby focus on the main adversary. He made it very clear to Zelensky about his views and the limits of US financial and military aid to continue the war. The Biden administration supported the war with European allies and NATO with trillions of dollars, even as success and strategic defeat of Russia eluded them. Stressed economies, inflation and difficulties in most Western countries and the futility of the ongoing war of attrition created a rethinking of the effectiveness of their support at their expense. However, the Biden Administration is scrambling to provide $60 billion in arms and ammunition and financial aid to Ukraine before it leaves.

Western Europeans and NATO verticals are also not in sync with Trump’s approach, which will be a challenge going forward. Besides what kind of cease-fire, settlements and lasting or cold peace and under what conditions is still an open question. But continued US aid and support are essential to beleaguered Ukraine, and the fear of its disruption is telling for them.

At the Valdai Discussion Club (November 7), President Vladimir Putin expressed his admiration for Trump, who was shot but showed great resolve. He publicly congratulated Trump on his victory. He also referred to the statements made by Trump and stated that they must be given serious attention and that he is ready to talk with his American counterpart. The Washington Post mentioned a conversation between the two, which the Kremlin rather cryptically denied ever happened. But that will happen sooner or later, and the results will also depend on how the Russian riddle is solved and Ukrainian sovereignty is maintained or sacrificed. His national security adviser, Michael Waltz, also believes in ending the war as soon as possible. There is indeed war weariness from all parties and stakeholders. However, in the meantime, as the Kremlin and the EU, plus Biden, continue their strategic goals, the intensity of the Eurasian war increases several times.

Given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s excellent relationship with President Trump and his efforts to facilitate an end to the war, perhaps the synergy between US and Indian approaches could be optimized to achieve this goal as the Global South continues to bear the brunt of the Eurasian War of whose voice Nine champions of Delhi. India is obviously worried as PM Modi keeps reiterating that this is not an era of war.

middle east

President Trump, during his last term, was instrumental in several Middle East initiatives, including the Abraham Accords, bringing diplomatic normalcy between four Arab states and Israel. He also tried to work on a deal of the century for Palestine, while controversially at the same time stoking the fire by declaring Jerusalem and the Golan Heights part of Israel. His preference and commitment to Israel and even Netanyahu is clear and consistent.

Netanyahu has already spoken three times with Trump, even as he fired his critical defense minister, Yoav Gallant. His security minister, Smotrich, calls for the annexation of the West Bank because it is the right opportunity. Trump’s disdain for Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran is well-entrenched, and reviving or renegotiating the JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Aal) is out of the question at this stage, even if conciliatory signals can be read from a moderate Iranian president.

In fact, more sanctions could follow, even though Trump may not prefer an all-out war between Iran and Israel, as Arab allies are also against him. His ambassador-designate to the UN, Elise Stefanik, first met with Israeli President Herzog. His new ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, is a known Israelophile. Trump who appointed him stated: “He (Mike) loves Israel and the people of Israel love him. Mike will work tirelessly to bring peace to the Middle East.”

All this clearly indicates that an excited and emboldened Bibi would not yield to the call and efforts of the lame-duck presidency for a ceasefire and the eventual release of the remaining hostages. It was also evident in the failure of the Biden Administration’s 30-day deadline for Israel to allow unhindered humanitarian and aid deliveries to the people of Gaza, which ended without any credible results. The embattled Biden administration appears to be trying their last wave of diplomacy by pressuring Qatar to evict Hamas officials from Doha, which has already decided to withdraw from the mediation role, given the intransigence of the actors involved, who also continue to switch points of the gate. frequent.

Saudi Arabia has clearly taken a pole position alongside the Islamic world in condemning the ongoing civilian violence and atrocities and violations of international law in the war zones of Gaza and Lebanon. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as Iraqi militias associated with Tehran, have stepped up their attacks on Israel, clearly indicating that this war is unlikely to end soon. Moreover, as conservatives take over in the Trump administration, while Iran and Israel threaten further escalation, indulging in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) syndrome.

How far Trump can use his influence before January 20 and after remains to be seen!

The author is the former Ambassador of India to Jordan, Libya and Malta and is currently a Distinguished Fellow of the Vivekananda International Foundation. The opinions expressed in the piece above are personal and solely the author’s. They do not necessarily reflect the views of Firstpost.