NAGPUR: Dust Gudadhe-Patil is counting on the state’s economic woes to be his secret weapon, hoping that an anti-incumbency wave will help him slay the Goliath in the upcoming assembly elections. A low-profile former municipal corporator, Gudadhe-Patil of the Congress will take on Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for the second time in the Nagpur South West constituency. In the 2014 assembly polls, he lost to Fadnavis by a margin of 60,000 votes.

While the odds are clearly in Fadnavis’ favor, the senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader is leaving nothing to chance. As he seeks a sixth term from this stronghold, he floods the constituency with his campaign materials, while his supporters run a robust door-to-door campaign. The BJP, which runs the Mahayuti alliance government in the state, is touting the Ladki Bahin scheme and other welfare measures, highlighting Fadnavis’ achievements such as the MIHAN freight hub, an AIIMS hospital, an Indian Institute of Management (IIM) and a national law. University.

Fadnavis’ track record

Devendra Fadnavis has repeatedly defeated important personalities from his constituency. He started his electoral journey in 1999 when he won from West Nagpur constituency defeating former state Congress Seva Dal chief Ashok Dhawad. In 2004, he triumphed in the same constituency, this time against former Maharashtra Congress chief and former minister Ranjit Deshmukh.

In 2009, when the new Nagpur South West constituency was created, Fadnavis faced his old friend Vikas Thakare of the Congress and emerged victorious. In the 2014 elections, the Congress fielded Prafulla Gudadhe-Patil, son of former minister Vinod Gudadhe-Patil, a BJP core member and the first BJP MLA from Nagpur. Despite Gudadhe-Patil’s local dominance as a senior corporator, Fadnavis defeated him that year. Voters had no idea then that they were supporting a candidate who would become Chief Minister.

In the 2019 elections, Fadnavis triumphed against Congress’s Ashish Deshmukh, who has since defected to the BJP and is currently contesting in Saoner against Congress’s Anuja Kedar.

Over the past five years, Fadnavis has initiated numerous projects in his constituency, including an indoor sports stadium, the development of ‘London Street’, green gymnasiums, new sewer lines and road construction. Moreover, Fadnavis has cemented his role not just as a party leader but also as someone who can lead the state, which undoubtedly adds to his political edge.

All of Fadnavis’ electoral victories were more than convincing: he defeated Vikas Thakare by over 28,000 votes in 2009, by 60,000 votes against Gudadhe-Patil in 2014 and by over 50,000 votes in 2019 against Ashish Deshmukh of Congress.

Gudadhe-Patil as Appellant

Dr. Srinivas Khandewale, economist and Nagpur South-West voter, suggests that the current landscape is significantly different from that of 2014 or 2019. He notes that anti-incumbency, inflation, unemployment and caste dynamics could pose challenges for Fadnavis and, although a BJP bastion , this election may not be a cakewalk for Fadnavis.

Khandewale describes Gudadhe-Patil as an approachable and energetic young politician. Recognized as a hardworking corporator, he is passionate about public issues. His antecedents in the influential Kunbi community and substantial presence of OBC and Dalit voters in the constituency may play a crucial role in the election outcome.

Although OBC voters have historically aligned with the BJP in this constituency, the recent Lok Sabha elections have indicated a potential alienation of these party voters in some areas of Vidarbha. However, Nitin Gadkari has secured a lead of over 33,000 votes in this assembly segment, suggesting continued support in Nagpur South West.

This constituency also has a highly educated electorate, which could mitigate the caste impact here. Also, the number of women voters in Nagpur South-West outnumbers that of male voters, suggesting that the Mahayuti government’s flagship Ladki Bahin scheme could significantly influence the outcome of the election.

Fadnavis was groomed by his father Gangadharrao Fadnavis, a former MLC, and Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari. Often touted as a potential successor to Prime Minister Modi and the BJP’s future national president, this election is a crucial test for the 54-year-old politician as he hopes to score a decisive victory in his re-election bid.

Challenger: What does it say

Dust Gudadhe-Patil (Cong) said that in 2014, he was not prepared for the “Modi wave” which significantly boosted the BJP’s performance. “Things have changed in 2024 and I am entering the ring to win,” he said, referring to the result of the recent Lok Sabha elections that boosted the Congress’ morale. “Unity among MVA constituents (which includes the Congress) has created a consolidated vote bank – a dynamic that was missing in the 2019 elections.”