WACO, Texas (KWTX) – The First Alert Weather team will be closely monitoring a strong cold front pushing into the area Monday for the possibility of severe weather. Monday is the next first weather alert day as impactful weather is expected in at least part of central Texas.

Despite the best storm chances on Monday arriving in the predawn and morning hours, there will be a severe risk of storms as a strong cold front moves through the area and an area of ​​low pressure crosses the state.

The main risk of severe weather from Monday’s severe storms will be from gusts of wind in a straight line which could near 65 MPH in the strongest storms.

While we’ll primarily monitor gusty winds, the strongest storms could also contain up to a quarter-sized hail.

The risk of a tornado with Monday morning’s storms is low, but a stray tornado is possible. Because atmospheric instability is low but wind shear is high, any tornadoes that form should be short-lived and likely weak.

We’re not yet confident as to exactly when Monday’s storms will pass, but the latest forecast model data suggests the storm chances will be highest for our area. between 5:00 and 11:00.

This time of year, cold fronts tend to move a little faster than forecast model data suggests, so the severe weather window could increase a little earlier on Monday. If the time frame for severe weather increases, the strongest storms could affect the I-35 corridor during the busiest Monday morning commute and during dismissal times for many schools.

As is typical with severe storms arriving along cold fronts, the western half of the area will experience storms and likely dry out before the eastern half of the area sees the storms move through.

Moisture will return in abundance this weekend, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly near and east of I-35. Fortunately, Sunday’s storms will likely remain below severe, but 40 MPH wind gusts, showers, along with lightning and thunder will be the main storm hazards.

Although there is a chance for scattered thunderstorms after sunset on Sunday and before the main line of storms arrives, overnight storms will likely remain below severe.

Monday’s cold front and its attached storms will likely push into our area a few hours before sunrise and gradually push from west to east. Storms arriving as early as 5:00 a.m. west of Hwy 281 should steadily move through and arrive near I-35 around 8:00 a.m. or shortly thereafter. For cities and towns east of I-35, the storms likely won’t affect much of the morning commute with the main storm window from about 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.

As of now, it looks like most areas will get about an hour to two hours of rain before drier air arrives and ends the storms.

Rainfall totals may be limited with the front, but most areas should get between a quarter inch and a half inch of rain, with higher totals within showers.

We’ve highlighted the likelihood of cooler-than-normal temperatures returning next week, and while cooler air is still expected to arrive, the lowest temperature could be headed more toward the southeastern US and not to the Plain.

In addition to our upcoming temperature forecast, it looks like the drop in temperatures won’t last as long either. In fact, we may only spend two days next week with below normal high temperatures!

The average date of our first frost of a winter season is November 21st. Earlier this week it looked like we would see our first frost almost right on time! Since the coldest air is likely missing out east, we may not see our first frost until around or maybe even after Thanksgiving. Since 2000, there have only been two winter seasons where the first frost occurred in December. This winter there is a trend in that direction.

Copyright 2024 KWTX. All rights reserved.