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    • Hurricane spaghetti patterns show Sara could hit Florida. Is it?
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    Hurricane spaghetti patterns show Sara could hit Florida. Is it?

    Online Niel Posted on

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    The eventual path and power of the future future Tropical Storm Sara remain uncertain Thursday, with forecasters closely monitoring every computer model run as the system spins into the Caribbean Sea, near storm-vulnerable Central America, where a “catastrophic flood disaster” is possible.

    In a worst-case scenario for the US, a major hurricane could hit Florida’s Gulf Coast by the middle of next week, but forecasters say it will have to clear several hurdles first.

    Potential obstacles to Florida’s path include a track across Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula that could weaken the storm, and a cold front expected to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico early next week that could destroy the storm before it reaches the Florida peninsula. Brian McNoldya senior researcher at the Rosenstiel School at the University of Miami, told USA TODAY.

    If Sara survives to hit the Florida coast, it would be the fourth hurricane to make landfall this year, following Debby, Helene and Milton. “Florida doesn’t have to deal with another impact,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter.

    Too soon to be sure what Sara’s path might be

    The center expected the system to become a tropical storm on Thursday, then “steadily or even rapidly strengthen over warm waters” in the western Caribbean and be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Central American coast on Friday and on Saturday, National Hurricane Center. director Michael Brennan said in an update Wednesday night.

    “It is far too early to determine what impact this system may ultimately have on portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba by the middle of next week, but residents in these areas should closely monitor regular forecast updates,” Brennan said.

    A ‘catastrophic flood disaster’

    If the storm’s center stays a little further offshore, the storm could be stronger, but if it moves inland, it could weaken, Brennan said. “There’s still going to be a huge threat of precipitation and that’s going to be the biggest danger here that’s going to play out across Central America over the next few days.”

    “The potential for life-threatening catastrophic flooding and precipitation is by far the biggest hazard in terms of fatalities here in Central America when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes,” Brennan said. The center is forecasting 10 to 20 inches of rain across northern Honduras, with isolated locations receiving up to 30 inches of rain.

    “This could be a catastrophic flood disaster for parts of Central America, particularly Honduras and Nicaragua,” Porter told USA TODAY. Rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour are possible, which is simply too fast and furious for the ground to handle, he said.

    According to a Thursday news bulletin from WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry, “this part of the Caribbean has been devastated by severe flooding in the recent past, including most notably in late October and early November 1998 when Hurricane Mitch flooded parts of Honduras , Guatemala, and Nicaragua, with catastrophic rains of more than 25 to 50 centimeters, causing more than 10,000 confirmed deaths and making it one of the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones on record.”

    Spaghetti patterns for the storm expected to become Sara show the uncertainty

    Runs from a U.S. ensemble model on Wednesday showed a weak system approaching Florida as it tangles with the cold front.

    The latest model “doesn’t beat the cold front, it has kind of a weak thing coming out of the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico and it’s more or less absorbed/squeezed out by the cold front,” McNoldy said.

    It would be “great news for Florida if that happens,” he said. “One, because we want a cold front and two, we don’t want a hurricane.”

    Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    What drives the storm?

    The main story over the next few days is the lack of large-scale weather patterns that could drive the storm one way or the other, McNoldy said. “It’s going to move west basically for the next 5 days or so, but there’s a lot moving along the exact path of that drift.”

    “If he spends those few days over the Caribbean, that’s a very different outcome than if he spends a few days over Honduras,” McNoldy said.

    “This can be a make or break thing, if it spends three or four days over Honduras, that could be the end we hear,” he said. Tropical cyclones cannot sustain themselves on land because they need the exchange of warm ocean water for fuel.

    The key questions are whether the storm survives the encounter with Honduras to enter the Gulf, and if it does enter the Gulf, will it be able to move quickly enough to get ahead of the cold front, McNoldy said. “He’s got some obstacles ahead of him.”

    In addition, Porter warned that only minor variations in wind direction can make a big difference in the storm’s eventual path.

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