What you need to know: A recent analysis showed that the initial low-rate production budget for the B-21 Raider stealth bomber is 28 percent cheaper than expected, bringing the cost down from $19.1 billion to $13.8 billion. This has sparked interest in accelerating production beyond the anticipated 21 aircraft over the next five years.

The numbers problem: However, questions remain whether such a limited number can deliver the necessary strategic impact, especially as defense officials consider reallocating scarce resources to other military priorities.

-Northrop Grumman, the B-21 maker, hopes for an expanded order, but the program’s high costs continue to fuel budget debate.

B-21 Raider just got 28% cheaper?

The gods of supply take and then suddenly give. That’s the word on the street about the Pentagon’s reduced production budget for The B-21 Raider. This stunning new long-range stealth bomber is meant to replace the aging and puny force of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers which the United States Air Force has had in its fleet for decades.

These birds are getting there in age and the Air Force desperately wants a long-range stealth bomber that can be more reliable. challenge the Chinese, who are working diligently to create an army that can box the Indo-Pacific Americans.

Air Force planners hope they can acquire at least 150 units of these birds. There is only one problem. These highly advanced stealth bombers are expensive. And one of the reasons behind the low-rate production order was that the complexity of these birds would put undue strain on America’s already battered defense industrial base.

At this rate, the US would be lucky to get a few dozen of these impressive warplanes.

Good news

A little bit of good news about the cost of the B-21 has some in the Air Force rethinking their skepticism. A two-year study of the B-21 procurement shows that there was a 28% reduction in initial cost.

First, the Pentagon estimate would spend $19.1 billion on the initial low-rate production order. In contrast, the Pentagon spent only $13.8 billion. This has led some defense officials to consider increasing their order.

Indeed, the plane’s maker, Northrop Grumman, hopes the Air Force will abandon its “deliberately slow production ramp-up” and add “potentially dozens of aircraft in the last three years of the initial low-rate production phase.” conformable TO Aviation Week.

Of course, this is still an extremely expensive platform. And while the Air Force wavered from wanting 300 or 150 units of these birds, Aviation Week uncovered a 2015 document from the Pentagon’s contract with Northrop Grumman indicating that the Air Force expected to get 21 B-21 bombers over a five-year period.

This would leave the B-21 fleet with just two more aircraft than the B-2 Spirit Raider fleet has at its disposal.

B-21 Raider: Is this the best platform?

But for that money, it begs the question: Could those finite tax dollars be better spent on other, possibly cheaper defense priorities (or possibly, not even on defense)?

Moreover, few question whether 21 of these aircraft, purchased over the next five years, can really have the kind of strategic impact that its designers envision.

About the author

Brandon J. Weicherta national security of national interest analystis a former congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor to The Washington Times, Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image credit: Creative Commons.