The top question on the minds of our foreign policy makers and commentators is what to expect from US President Donald Trump’s second term in terms of our interests. Trump’s unpredictability is a source of concern for all countries, be they allies, friends or adversaries. However, our experience from Trump’s first term gives us confidence that his second presidency will generally see continued progress in our relationship, the foundations of which were laid over the past two decades under previous presidencies Republicans and Democrats.

This would explain Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s comment that some countries may be nervous about Trump’s return to power, but India is not. Some outside commentators believe Trump’s re-election has been met with enthusiasm in India, as they see him as a kindred spirit to Modi, both of whom are ideologically conservative right-wingers. This echoes the anti-Modi narrative promoted in progressive, leftist, human rights and minority rights Western circles. Modi, no doubt, got along very well personally with Trump, but so did he with Biden and, before him, with Obama. Just as elements of Biden and Obama’s policies were problematic for India, so were aspects of Trump’s policies.

Relief, not excitement

At policy-making levels and among discerning commentators, there is no such thing as “enthusiasm”. There might be a sense of relief that the Trump administration would stay out of the way on some of the issues Democrats have been pestering us about. On these issues, there has been a degree of political synergy between India’s opposition and democratic circles, to the point of even inviting US interference in our internal affairs. This would continue to be the undercurrent in India-US relations, as the democratic ecosystem in the media, academia, think tanks, Congressional “progressive” circles, etc., will remain active. But this will not be part of the government narrative as before.

There is a caveat though. The US State Department’s annual reports on human rights, religious freedoms, etc. are mandated by the US Congress and will contain the usual salvos against India. We can expect that unlike Blinken, who unprecedentedly singled out India twice by name while presenting the reports, his successor is unlikely to do so. But we should keep in mind that Christian evangelicals are among those who strongly support Trump and could work as a pressure point within the administration on issues related to “Christian persecution,” the conversion issue, and restrictions on NGOs in India.

What the new appointments mean for India

There is a lot of interest globally in the appointments that Trump is making to key positions in his administration. India has reason to be pleased with the nominations of Marc Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser. Rubio is a strong supporter of stronger defense, space and technology ties with India. He introduced the US-India Defense Cooperation Act in the Senate in July 2024, which seeks to strengthen cooperation in these areas with India, in addition to seeking an exemption for it from CAATSA legislation (America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act ) and to restrict US assistance to Pakistan. . As a China hawk, he also sees India as a counterbalance to China.

Mike Waltz is the Republican co-chair of the India Caucus, which means he understands India issues, has been responsive to India’s concerns, has been an advocate for strong US-India ties, and is well connected with the Indian diaspora. He believes that the US-India partnership has been the most important strategic relationship of the 21st century. Presumably, like Jake Sullivan, he will continue to lead the iCET (Initiative for Critical and Emerging Technologies) on the US side, with our National Security Advisor (NSA), Ajit Doval, as his counterpart. This is important.

Both are China hawks, meaning the Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategy will continue to be strongly supported by the White House and the State Department. Kurt Campbell, earlier in the Biden White House and later appointed Assistant Secretary of State in the State Department, was a strong supporter of the Quad and Indo-Pacific strategy. He will most likely leave his post, but both Rubio and Waltz would ensure that this part of the India-US strategic cooperation, which also considers challenging China, continues unabated.

Attention is first

India will host the next Quad summit in 2025, which means Trump should come to India very early in his tenure – a bonus as bureaucracies in both countries will be galvanized to make the visit substantial in content and provide direction India. -Relations with the USA and at the bilateral level.

We must be careful, however, not to be pushed beyond a certain point into subscribing to the Trump administration’s ease with China. Our ties with Beijing will remain a massive challenge for us strategically, even though there has been some positive movement on the border recently. This means some easing of tensions, but not an end, as Chinese policies will remain unpredictable. We will need hedging strategies, for which the Quad and Indo-Pacific strategies are indispensable. We must consider our stakes in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as part of maintaining a balance in our foreign policy and keeping some cards to play to preserve our strategic autonomy.

Trump, China and Russia

We will also have to bear in mind that there are inherent contradictions in US China policy, and Trump’s approach is not without them. Trump no longer wants to get involved in wars abroad, which means he will want to use diplomatic and economic tools to deal with China’s expansionism and its threat to US global preeminence. How much China can and will exploit this contradiction to continue asserting itself in the Western Pacific and beyond with its economic power, which inevitably translates into political influence, remains to be seen.

Trump’s inclination to resolve the conflict in Ukraine will potentially ease tensions, benefiting India and the Global South. It remains to be seen whether he succeeds or, if rejected, ups the ante to put more pressure on Russia. If a direct dialogue begins with the US and Russia, then the pressure on Modi to act as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine and find common ground will end. Zelensky’s latest “Victory Plan” to establish peace will also become redundant. Trump and his State Department, NSA, and Pentagon nominees are extremely pro-Israel, and this does not bode well for peace in West Asia. Trump’s anti-Iran stance is neither reassuring for the region nor for India.

Economic pain points

Economically, we had pressure from Trump during his first term, when the US excluded us from the Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP) and imposed tariffs on our steel and aluminum exports to the US. During his campaign, he referred to India as a “tariff king” and a “trade abuser”, even as he spoke very warmly of Modi personally. He has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and 10-20% tariffs on imports from other countries. Many in Indian business circles believe we could handle a 10% tariff, in fact, and with much higher import duties on China, we could even benefit in some areas. There is concern that Trump could tighten H1B visas, stronger controls on US technology transfers could affect us too, and Trump’s determination to push American corporations to invest in the US and create jobs there could change the discourse on supporting friends. or resilient supply chains etc.

The appointment of Robert Lighthizer, the US trade representative in Trump’s first term and someone India has found difficult to deal with, to define US trade policy in the president’s second term will be problematic across the board. He is truly a trade hawk who wants to use US economic power aggressively to protect the country’s interests as he perceives them, to the point of destroying the World Trade Organization (WTO), if he can.

Counting on the Modi-Trump rapport

India has the advantage, even with these difficulties, of a personal relationship between Modi and Trump and forward-looking political support in the State Department and at the national security adviser level, not to mention in the US Congress, to counter undue trade pressures . Even on the US side, they will have to take the totality of long-term American interests in India to shape a balanced policy approach.

Ultimately, we can hope that the Biden administration’s approach to the Nijjar and Pannun affairs will become more discreet than one that resorts to unquestioningly supporting Trudeau, speaking to India demanding satisfaction and accountability, and giving Pannun free rein to threaten India with terrorism, death threats, etc. Trump called Trudeau “weak,” “dishonest” and “two-faced.” That gives hope that Trudeau will become less provocative. You must however bear in mind that since the Pannun case is before the courts, the news of the proceedings will make news that the anti-Indian elements abroad will take over and which our media will reproduce.

Exciting times ahead.

(Kanwal Sibal was foreign secretary and ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, as well as deputy chief of mission in Washington.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author