JACKSONVILLE, FL – Expect to see Tropical Storm Sara by late Thursday.

That’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center, which said that as of 4 a.m. Thursday, the potential tropical cyclone in the Caribbean Sea had formed into Tropical Depression 19.

The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by the end of the day and continue to strengthen if it remains over water.

As of 4 a.m. Thursday, the center of the tropical depression was about 450 miles east of Honduras, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph.

It was moving west at nearly 16 mph and is expected to stall and move near the northern coast of Honduras Friday night and into the weekend.

The system will bring life-threatening flash floods to Honduras, the NHC said.

But will the system come to us? It is possible.

While the official hurricane season ends Nov. 30, unusually warm waters in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have kept the hurricane season active and the system could threaten parts of Florida a week before Thanksgiving.

This system is forecast to move northward through the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, with potential impact on Florida’s Gulf Coast, the Keys, and western Cuba.

The historical context

Strong hurricanes in November are rare, especially in the Gulf of Mexico. However, they do happen.

For example, Hurricane Kate in 1985 became the strongest November hurricane to hit the Gulf, making landfall near Mexico Beach a few days before Thanksgiving.

Although the storm’s path is still uncertain, current models suggest the storm could curve toward southern Florida or western Cuba, with the possibility of seeing direct impacts on northern Florida.

What to expect

For North Florida residents, the risk of a direct hit remains low as the storm’s path is more likely to affect areas further south.

Given the warm waters and favorable atmospheric conditions, it is likely to become a hurricane in the Caribbean Sea by the end of the week.